Trump approaches the midterms lacking significant achievements in foreign policy

As the Iran war reaches a costly standoff and crises in Ukraine and Gaza remain unresolved, President Donald Trump’s ambitious foreign policy agenda appears stalled as he approaches the midterm elections in November.

The setbacks are notable for a president who returned to office last year vowing to be a “peacemaker” and made the resolution of international conflicts a central focus of his second-term agenda.

Trump has become increasingly frustrated with the inquiries from reporters and even with U.S. allies. This week, he expressed his frustration toward reporters who were questioning him about foreign policy matters and reiterated his threat to bomb Oman, a U.S. ally that is in negotiations with Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Labor Day, which occurs on September 7 this year, marks the traditional start of intensified election campaigns. Republicans face the possibility that ongoing international conflicts and their economic repercussions domestically may jeopardize the party’s control of Congress.

Iran’s stalemate is exacting a political cost.

Trump has terminated discussions with Tehran after weeks of advocating for a diplomatic resolution and declared on Wednesday a new initiative of “economic warfare” against the Islamic Republic, seemingly recognizing that months of military actions have not yielded the concessions desired by the U.S.

As inflation continues and the conflict in Iran escalates gasoline prices, Trump’s approval rating has reached a new low, with only 33% of Americans in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll expressing approval of his performance.

Other attempts to facilitate peace have also stalled.

On Monday, Trump’s negotiator and son-in-law Jared Kushner returned without any progress from discussions aimed at advancing a Gaza peace deal. Kushner and Trump envoy Steve Witkoff have not yet made their anticipated visit to Kyiv to rejuvenate the long-stalled negotiations aimed at ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Following a series of initial successes in foreign policy, such as a ceasefire in Gaza and the capture of Venezuela’s leader, Trump’s record has increasingly come to be characterized by his halted diplomatic initiatives.

Trump has effectively questioned and unsettled the established foreign policy consensus in Washington, yet he has not converted that upheaval into a strategy that offers tangible benefits for Americans,” stated Asli Aydintasbas, a fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington.

Iran’s conflict poses a significant challenge for Trump domestically.

The conflict with Iran has significantly burdened the president, and there is a lack of agreement within the White House regarding a resolution, according to a Trump ally who requested to remain unnamed.

The pressure may rise if investors determine that the war will continue, leading to higher U.S. borrowing costs and additional limitations on Trump’s domestic agenda. Trump has stated that the economic costs are justified to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, despite Iran’s assertions that it does not pursue one.

“President Trump has restored America’s respect on the global stage, and the outcomes are evident—nine wars have concluded, hostages have been released from Gaza, trade agreements are more equitable, and measures are in place to ensure Iran will never acquire a nuclear weapon,” stated White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly.

A senior official from the Trump administration stated that U.S. sanctions and a naval blockade have severely damaged Iran’s economy, leaving it “completely broke.” The official also mentioned, “There are many levers the president can crank harder in the weeks ahead.

An unconventional approach yielding varied outcomes

Some experts acknowledge Trump’s readiness to confront challenges that they feel previous presidents have shied away from addressing. “The president seeks a more stable world, which involves trying to resolve disputes, whether they are time-sensitive like Ukraine or more subtle like trade and overcapacity,” remarked Nick Snyder, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, noting that Trump also made efforts to mediate conflicts between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, as well as Thailand and Cambodia.

Trump has disrupted conventional diplomatic practices of peacemaking, utilizing America’s economic and military strength alongside U.S. allies; however, this unconventional approach has produced varied outcomes.

He convened parties to discuss the resolution of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; however, the protracted conflict, the longest in Europe since World War Two, shows no signs of conclusion. Recent Russian airstrikes resulted in the deaths of 16 individuals in the Ukrainian capital on Thursday.

In Gaza, mediators are concerned that escalating Israeli strikes on the enclave are hindering efforts to resolve the conflict, as both Israel and Hamas hesitate to meet the conditions necessary to progress with the peace plan established by Trump in October of last year. On Sunday, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon resulted in the deaths of 11 individuals, despite the ongoing U.S.-mediated peace framework between the two nations.

One significant achievement occurred in Venezuela, where the U.S. military apprehended President Nicolas Maduro without incurring any U.S. casualties. Analysts suggest that the operation played a role in persuading Trump that collaborating with Israel to attack Iran would unfold without complications.

However, they also state that the incident demonstrated a miscalculation. They contend that Trump has depended excessively on coercive tactics, although Iran’s leaders have minimal motivation to relent and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even in light of the nation’s declining economy. “He is fixated on using coercion and, at times, flattery to manipulate others, yet remains unaware of their strategic objectives and internal political dynamics. Consequently, he continues to flail and fail,” stated Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Meanwhile, as Trump’s Republican Party approaches elections that could jeopardize its control of one or both chambers of Congress, his ability to advance his agenda during the final two years of his presidency is significantly limited.

Analysts indicate that Trump’s dependence on coercive pressure can lead adversaries to engage in negotiations, yet it frequently does not result in enduring agreements, which may lead rivals to wait for a more favorable moment.

U.S. adversaries recognize that his political timeline is more limited than theirs and that although the United States can exert significant coercive pressure, it may ultimately run out of patience,” Aydintasbas stated. ” Consequently, Putin, Xi, and Iran might prefer to bide their time and outlast Washington. Following November, the motivation to endure Trump’s presidency will become increasingly evident.