Amazon states that commercially viable quantum computers may be available within the next seven years
Amazon forecasts that commercially viable quantum computers will be available within the next seven years, leading to significant advancements in scientific research.
Amazon anticipates that the first “commercially useful” quantum computers will appear in the next five to seven years. This insight comes from the company’s leading artificial intelligence executive, who noted that the technology could progress at a rate comparable to the historical development of semiconductor capabilities.
Peter DeSantis, who recently took charge of a new Amazon division focused on AI models, chips, and quantum computing, made the prediction during an interview on Wednesday. This marks the first occasion the company has publicly shared a timeline for the advent of practical quantum computing.
“I genuinely believe that within the next five to seven years, we will begin to witness the emergence of the first commercially viable small-scale quantum computers,” DeSantis stated.
“From there, we’re going to observe a phenomenon reminiscent of Moore’s Law, where advancements will continue to grow in scale each year, enabling the tackling of increasingly intriguing challenges,” he stated.
Moore’s Law describes the phenomenon where the quantity of transistors on a computer chip approximately doubles every two years, leading to ongoing advancements in computing power.
DeSantis aimed to address prevalent misunderstandings about quantum computing, emphasizing that its significance is not merely in enhancing the speed of current computers.
“One of the misconceptions is that a quantum computer will simply be a faster computer; that’s not the case at all.” A quantum computer is set to tackle a specific kind of problem that classic computers struggle with, and it will do so with significantly greater effectiveness,” he stated.
Proponents of quantum computing contend that this technology will ultimately address challenges that exceed the reach of traditional computers.
In contrast to classical computers that handle information through bits represented as either one or zero, quantum computers utilize quantum bits, or qubits, which can exist in a state of zero, one, or a superposition of both states at the same time.
The competition to create functional quantum computers has escalated recently, with leading technology firms such as Microsoft, Google, and IBM, along with various startups, making significant investments in the sector.
Last year, Amazon took a more aggressive stance in the competition by introducing Ocelot, its quantum computing chip aimed at tackling error correction — a major technical hurdle in the quest for dependable quantum machines.
DeSantis’ forecast positions Amazon amid the diverse predictions within the industry regarding the timeline for when quantum computing will achieve commercial viability.
In March of the previous year, a Google quantum executive stated that practical applications beyond the capabilities of contemporary computers could be realized within a five-year timeframe. Microsoft has expressed confidence that it will achieve a commercially viable quantum machine by 2029.
In contrast, Nvidia’s Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang caused a stir in the quantum computing sector last year when he indicated that 15 years might be “probably on the early side” for the advent of practical quantum computers, although he subsequently moderated his comments.
DeSantis stated that the initial practical uses of quantum computing are expected to arise in areas that inherently correspond with the technology’s advantages.
“The issues I anticipate will be addressed first are those related to quantum-based challenges, such as chemistry and material science,” DeSantis stated on Wednesday.
“These are the challenges where currently we cannot achieve sufficiently high-fidelity simulations on a classical computer, and once we have a quantum computer, we will see significant advancements,” he stated.
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