Hezbollah incurs significant costs in its efforts to change its circumstances

Hezbollah has incurred significant losses due to its conflict with Israel on March 2: Israel has taken control of a portion of southern Lebanon, displaced hundreds of thousands of its Shi’ite Muslim constituents, and resulted in the deaths of several thousand of its fighters, based on previously unreported casualty estimates from within the group.

The action has resulted in significant political repercussions as well. In Beirut, resistance has intensified regarding its designation as an armed group, which local adversaries perceive as putting Lebanon at risk of ongoing conflicts with Israel, particularly as tensions rise and the potential for further military engagement looms.

In April, Lebanon’s government engaged in direct discussions with Israel for the first time in decades, a move that was strongly opposed by Hezbollah.

More than a dozen Hezbollah officials have conveyed to Reuters their belief that aligning with Tehran in its conflict with Israel and the United States presents an opportunity to improve their declining situation. The organization, established by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in 1982, commenced its attacks two days after the onset of the conflict, which was triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.

The group’s calculations rely on the belief that its involvement would bring Lebanon into the forefront of U.S.-Iranian negotiations and that Iranian influence could achieve a more substantial ceasefire than the one established in November 2024 after a conflict initiated by the war in Gaza, according to the officials.

Hezbollah suffered significant losses in the last war, resulting in the death of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, along with approximately 5,000 fighters, which diminished its previously strong influence over the Lebanese state.

With support from Iran, Hezbollah has adopted new tactics and drones, surprising many with its capabilities after a delicate 15-month truce during which it refrained from attacking, despite Israel’s ongoing actions against its members.

Ibrahim al-Moussawi, a lawmaker from Hezbollah, refuted claims made by opponents that the group was acting on behalf of Iran when it renewed hostilities. He informed Reuters that Hezbollah perceived an opportunity to “break this vicious cycle … where the Israelis can target, assassinate, bombard, and kill without any retaliation.”

He recognized the losses and damage in southern Lebanon but stated, “You don’t go into making calculations of how many are going to be killed” when “pride and sovereignty and independence” are on the line.

Although a U.S.-mediated ceasefire that began on April 16 has resulted in a notable decrease in hostilities, Israel and Hezbollah have persisted in exchanging attacks in the south, where Israel has stationed troops in a self-declared “buffer zone.”

Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, remarked that Hezbollah had “demonstrated more resilience than many anticipated, yet that alone did not constitute a strategic advantage.”

“A comprehensive U.S.-Iran deal is the only thing that will contain Israel,” he stated. “In the absence of an agreement, many will experience significant hardship.” The situation is, at best, a painful impasse.

Graves freshly dug and swiftly filled.

Since March 2, over 2,600 individuals have lost their lives, with approximately one-fifth of them being women, children, and medical personnel, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. The impact does not differentiate between civilians and combatants.

According to three sources, including two Hezbollah officials, the ministry’s figures reportedly exclude a significant number of the group’s casualties. Reports indicate that several thousand Hezbollah fighters have lost their lives, although the group has yet to obtain a complete understanding of the situation.

Hezbollah’s media office stated that the figure of several thousand was incorrect, although the group does not possess the complete toll. It cited the health ministry’s figures, according to Reuters.

A Hezbollah commander reported that numerous fighters had arrived in the frontline towns of Bint Jbeil and Khiyam, prepared to fight to the death. Their bodies remain unrecovered.

In the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, over two dozen freshly dug graves were swiftly filled with the bodies of fighters in the days following the establishment of the ceasefire. Plain marble tombstones mark the resting places of some as commanders and others as warriors.

In a single southern village, Yater, the council documented the fatalities of 34 Hezbollah fighters.

Lebanon’s Shiite Muslim community has suffered significantly from Israel’s attacks, compelled to seek refuge in Christian, Druze, and other regions, where many hold Hezbollah responsible for initiating the conflict.

Israel has been solidifying its control over a security zone extending up to 10 km (6 miles) into Lebanon and dismantling villages, asserting that its objective is to protect northern Israel from assaults by Hezbollah militants situated within civilian regions.

A government official from Israel stated that Hezbollah violated the ceasefire established in November 2024 by attacking Israeli citizens on March 2. The official stated that the threat to northern Israel would be eliminated, noting that thousands of Hezbollah militants had been killed and that Israel was consistently dismantling the group’s infrastructure.

The Israeli military reports that Hezbollah has launched hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel since March 2. Israel has reported the deaths of 17 soldiers in southern Lebanon, as well as two civilians in northern Israel.
Hezbollah has deemed the April ceasefire meaningless, citing ongoing Israeli strikes, and it has persisted in its attacks.

IRAN ‘WILL NOT BETRAY’ THEIR FRIENDS

A diplomat with connections to Hezbollah characterized the group’s choice to engage in the war as a significant risk and a tactic for survival, noting that it believed it had to be involved in the issue to play a role in a future regional resolution.

The outcome of this gamble is yet to be determined.

Tehran has insisted that Israel’s actions against Hezbollah be part of any agreement regarding the broader conflict. However, Trump stated last month that any agreement Washington makes with Tehran “is in no way subject to Lebanon.”

A representative from Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, Tahir Andrabi, directed Reuters to a statement made on April 16, in which he emphasized that peace in Lebanon is crucial to the discussions being facilitated between the U.S. and Iran.

A Western official indicated that there is a chance the U.S. and Iran could ultimately arrive at a settlement that does not pertain to the conflict in Lebanon.

The U.S. State Department, Iran’s mission to the United Nations in Geneva, and Lebanon’s government did not provide an immediate comment when asked about the situation.

Moussawi of Hezbollah stated that achieving a ceasefire in Lebanon remains a primary concern for Iran, emphasizing that Tehran aligns with Lebanon’s goals, which include demanding an end to Israeli attacks and a withdrawal from Lebanese territory.

Hezbollah expresses complete confidence in Iran, asserting that the Iranians will remain loyal to their allies.

The State Department directed Reuters to an interview conducted on April 27, in which Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with Fox News. During this interview, he asserted that Israel has the right to defend itself against attacks from Hezbollah and expressed his belief that Israel does not intend to keep its buffer zone in Lebanon permanently.

The United States has called on Israel “to ensure that their responses are proportional and targeted,” he stated.

Upon the announcement of the ceasefire on April 16, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the disarmament of Hezbollah would be a key requirement in peace negotiations with Lebanon.

Hezbollah has rejected the notion of disarmament, asserting that a national dialogue should address the issue of its weapons. Any attempt by Lebanon to forcibly disarm the group could potentially spark conflict in a nation already devastated by civil war from 1975 to 1990.

Since last year, Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have pursued the peaceful disarmament of Hezbollah. On March 2, the government prohibited the military activities of the group.

Hezbollah has called on the government to revoke that decision and cease its direct negotiations with Israel.

Officials in Lebanon have informed Reuters that they consider direct negotiations with Israel, facilitated by the U.S., to be the most effective approach for establishing a lasting ceasefire and ensuring the withdrawal of Israeli forces, as only Washington possesses sufficient influence over Israel to accomplish these objectives.