Median projections suggest that Hungary’s Tisza party is on track to achieve a two-thirds majority in parliament
A research agency called Median said on Wednesday that Hungary’s opposition party Tisza is likely to win a two-thirds majority in parliament in Sunday’s election. This would give it the power to change the constitution and key laws that are needed to get EU funds.
Independent polls show that the center-right Tisza party, run by Peter Magyar, is ahead of veteran nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Fidesz party. This is the biggest threat to their rule in 16 years.
Based on a study of Median’s five most recent polls, which were done in late February and March, it is thought that Tisza will win between 138 and 142 seats in the 199-member parliament.
The projection showed that Fidesz would get between 49 and 55 seats, and the far-right Our Homeland (Mi Hazank) party would get between 5 and 6 seats.
A party needs 133 seats in Hungary’s parliament to get the supermajority it needs to change the constitution and important laws.
Since 2010, most of Fidesz’s rule has been based on a two-thirds majority. The party used this power to pass a new constitution and make changes to several important laws, such as the election law.
The pollster Median, which has one of the best track records of correct predictions in Hungary, said that its five surveys, which were done by three different call centers, had a total sample size of 5,000 people.
It was right that Orban would win by a huge margin in the last election, four years ago, though it slightly overstated the opposition’s support.
Most polls have put Tisza ahead, but Fidesz points to studies that still put Orban’s party ahead and say they will win. Opponents of Fidesz say that these have mostly been done by groups that have financial or personal ties to the ruling party.
