Now that Maduro is gone, Rubio’s political future depends on how well Venezuela does
Memes about Marco Rubio’s wide-ranging influence in Trump’s second administration—he was secretary of state and national security advisor—have been made by AI. One new meme shows him in military uniform as Venezuela’s leader.
The internet joke hits home for Rubio because he is the son of Cuban immigrants and has long been angry at Venezuela, which is Cuba’s most important friend in the region, and its longtime leader, Nicolas Maduro, who was arrested on January 3 on drug trafficking charges.
Military victory was a personal win for Rubio. One man who ran for president in 2016 and is seen as a top candidate in 2028, on the other hand, could get mixed political benefits from it.
In the void left by Maduro’s arrest, he is now responsible for leading Venezuela toward the democracy future he once dreamed of as a junior senator, which ties his political future to that of the country.
During the 2016 election, Rubio ran for president but lost the primary to Donald Trump. In 2028, he might be up against Vice President JD Vance for the Republican nomination. As opposed to Rubio’s “hawkish” record, Vance supports restraint in foreign policy. Some in Trump’s “MAGA” movement have criticized Rubio’s record, calling him a fundamentalist who wants the U.S. to get more involved in other countries.
“The administration will be dealing with Venezuela for months and likely years to come, and this could be a millstone around Marco Rubio’s neck, both politically and otherwise,” said Justin Logan, head of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute.
No word from Vance’s office on this story.
As for the different approaches within the government, Tommy Pigott, Principal Deputy Spokesperson at the State Department, denied there was any difference and said that Washington’s plan for Venezuela included political reconciliation and then normalization.
“The entire administration is unified in fulfilling President Trump’s goal – moving Venezuela from a country oppressed by a narcoterrorist illegitimate regime that threatens our security, to a stable country that is a partner in the region,” Pigott added.
EXILE POLITICS
According to some online fans, Rubio’s image has already been improved by the Venezuela operation. They see him as the calm face of an often chaotic government.
Additionally, it has helped him in Florida, where he grew up in part of the strongly anti-communist Cuban community in Miami. This experience, according to former staff members, had a profound effect on his outlook on the world.
According to Cesar Conda, Rubio’s former chief of staff and a Republican strategist, the fight against communism and socialism is “part of his DNA” and “central to his political identity.” This week, Rubio’s State Department wrote on social media, “This is OUR hemisphere, and President Trump will not allow our security to be threatened.”
More power to Rubio’s supporters in Florida if Venezuela returned to freedom. This is especially true if the administration could use the removal of Maduro to bring about change in Cuba, which depends on Venezuela for cheap oil imports. Trump has said that Venezuela will not send any more oil or money to Cuba and has suggested that Havana make a deal with the Obama administration.
Forrest O’Connell, a Republican political strategist from Florida, said that the Venezuela plan was very popular with Venezuelan and Cuban Americans in South Florida. This could help Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections.
Nevertheless, he said, Latin American policy probably wouldn’t change who would run for president as a Republican in 2028. Trump ultimately chooses the king, and O’Connell said that Trump is currently moving toward Vance.
Trump has frequently pointed to both Rubio and Vance as possible successors, making it clear that he sees them as front-runners and possible running mates for each other.
Trump told reporters in October, “I think if they ever got together, they’d be unstoppable.”
EVOLUTION TO DEMOCRACY?
Russell Rubio, 54, made a name for himself in the Senate by speaking out against the socialist government in Caracas and its close links with Havana. From 2017 to 2021, he worked with the first Trump administration to put more sanctions on Venezuela.
Focus was clear on his first trip abroad as secretary of state. In February, while traveling through Central America and the Caribbean, he signed off on the official capture of Delcy Rodriguez’s (then Maduro’s vice president) plane, which had been held by Dominican authorities.
Rubio supported Trump’s choice to let Rodriguez stay in charge, and he has been in charge of dealing with the new leader for the government. He has long-standing links to leaders of the Venezuelan opposition, such as Maria Corina Machado, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, and has talked about his hopes for democracy in Venezuela.
In a three-step plan released on Wednesday, he said that the U.S. would first ensure stability in Venezuela, then oversee a recovery in which U.S. companies would help rebuild the country’s energy sector, and finally allow members of the opposition to be freed from jail or returning from exile, before finally moving to a transition.
Venezuela started letting prisoners go on Friday, and Trump met with oil executives to try to get them to spend.
Still, Venezuela has a long way to go before it becomes democracy.
If you ask Will Freeman, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, if other top administration officials were interested in overseeing the whole transition, he said, “How is he going to convince Trump, most importantly, and a critical mass of other administration officials that it’s in their interests for things to advance beyond that phase two?” Freeman inquired.
