Meloni’s chances for 2027 are clouded by the southern regional votes in Italy
Political experts question Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s chances of winning a second term in the upcoming national election after the opposition in southern Italy secured significant victories in provincial elections, revealing weaknesses in the dominance of the ruling conservative alliance.
The two main political parties drew 3–3 in this year’s regional elections throughout Italy, while center-left parties in Campania and Puglia won resounding victories, giving them hope that they could stop Meloni from gaining a landslide in 2027.
“We have been hearing the same worn-out theme for months: Giorgia Meloni has no competitors, she is unbeatable, and she has no alternatives. “The outcomes in Campania and Puglia… demonstrate that there is an alternative,” former Prime Minister and centrist senator Matteo Renzi posted on the social media site X.
Meloni’s coalition, which includes the far-right League, Forza Italia, and her Brothers of Italy party, leads opponents in national polls, but if center-left parties copy their regional partnerships nationally, their hold on power may wane.
Votes from the south prove crucial.
The primary reason Meloni and her supporters were able to seize power so easily in 2022 was that the two main center-left parties, the mainstream Democratic Party and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, were unable to come together before the poll, which caused opposition support to split in several crucial first-past-the-post contests.
This proved most costly in the upper body of the Senate, as right-wing parties worked together to secure 120 of the 200 seats up for grabs, with support concentrated primarily in the affluent north.
The southern vote is crucial because Italian prime ministers require a majority in both chambers of parliament in order to rule.
According to Lorenzo Pregliasco of the polling company YouTrend, Meloni’s coalition may face difficulties if a center-left coalition were formed at the national level.
In the center-south, there are about 20 swing constituencies that are presently controlled by conservatives. He warned that a hung parliament might result if they lost them.
BLOC MULLS RULING CHANGES TO THE LAW
Politicians and observers speculate that the ruling coalition may now try to amend the electoral legislation in response to this possibility.
In the existing system, Meloni faces a serious risk because 36% of parliamentarians are elected using a first-past-the-post method, while the majority are picked using proportional representation.
First-past-the-post constituencies should be replaced with an all-proportional system, according to Forza Italia’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani.
Both blocs might lose the next election under the existing system, Giovanni Donzelli, a prominent member of the Brothers of Italy, told the daily Corriere della Sera on Tuesday.
We wouldn’t, but the opposition would be pleased because they would be prepared to establish a (wide) government with everyone. “Whoever wins should be able to rule for five years,” he stated.
HOSTILITY BETWEEN THEM
While many of the tough reforms Italy needs have not been implemented by Meloni’s government, investors have embraced a period of comparatively stable politics, earning a series of rating agency upgrades.
More than 30% of voters support her Brothers of Italy party, which is far ahead of the PD and 5-Star. Her popularity may not be sufficient, though, as Meloni’s partners, the League and Forza Italia, remain below 10%.
But opposition ranks, from moderate, pro-business centrists to hard-left, anti-capitalist factions, have struggled to come together.
After years of animosity, analysts say the opposition’s job is to unite their supporters behind a common national vision.
The polling firm SWG’s Rado Fonda stated that the center-left alliance needs to convince its own voters to support it.
Their first chance to show unity will be at a referendum on a hotly debated justice reform that Meloni is leading in the spring of 2026. The prime minister may appear suddenly vulnerable if the vote is lost.
“The justice reform could be a turning point for her,” reported Pregliasco of YouTrend. “She’s broadly seen as a winner, but if she loses the referendum, I think her reputation could be damaged.”
