Ivory Coast’s mining boom will be put to the test as Ouattara runs for a fourth term
Ivory Coast’s mining industry is getting ready for possible problems ahead of Saturday’s tense presidential vote. President Alassane Ouattara is running for a fourth term, and key opposition figures have been banned.
A former IMF economist, Ouattara, is trying to broaden the economy of the world’s biggest cocoa producer. One big part of his plan is to start mining.
Gold production has gone from about 10 metric tons in 2012 to over 58 tons in 2024, with a goal of 100 tons by 2030, since he took office in 2011.
There have been violent elections in Ivory Coast in the past. Over 3,000 people were killed in the war that brought Ouattara to power in 2010 and 2011. At least 85 people were killed in fighting related to the 2020 election.
The miners are stockpiling supplies and moving staff around.
This month, there have been protests in many places before the election. On October 14, police said that an opposition protester was killed after being hit by a projectile. Hundreds of people were held during the protests.
Three people in the mining industry said that miners are storing fuel, cyanide, caustic soda, and explosives out of fear of unrest and moving staff closer to sites to keep operations safe.
Supplies are being put in place at northern hubs like Korhogo and Odienne, and two sources said that stocks outside of mines are also being talked over.
There is more crime and government crackdowns in West Africa’s Sahel region, but Ivory Coast has become a safe place for mining companies to invest. Big names like Barrick (ABX.TO), Perseus (PRU.AX), Endeavour (EDV.L), Fortuna (FVI.TO), and Montage (MAU.TO), backed by the Lundin Family Trust and Zijin (601899.SS), have all set up shop there.
Newcomers like Resolute (RSG.AX) and 1818.HK, which is owned by Zhaojin and is based in China, Tietto got licenses for gold, lithium, copper, and cobalt this year.
Now that inflow has to pass a test.
The candidates who were seen as the biggest opponents, former President Laurent Gbagbo and former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam, will not be able to run in Saturday’s election.
One senior source in the business said, “Contingency plans are being stepped up as visibility decreases.”
“We’re not saying the country is unsafe, but we’ve seen this before – same cause, same consequences.”
A lobbying group called the Professional Group of Miners of Côte d’Ivoire and the mines ministry both declined to comment when asked.
A consultant from J.S. Held said there is a “slight pause in deal scoping ahead of the vote, but no capital flight or repricing of risk.” “Ivory Coast remains a stable anchor in Francophone West Africa.”
Michael Kruiniger of the research company Fitch BMI said that emergency measures made sense because trouble has happened in mining areas before.
