The Moroccan central bank keeps the base rate at 2.25%
Tensions between countries and within Morocco kept the country’s central bank’s main interest rate at 2.25% on Tuesday.
Trade tensions, conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and the effects of drought on Morocco’s crops continue to negatively affect the economic prospects, the bank said in a statement following its quarterly board meeting.
The bank said that inflation will steadily rise to 1.9% in 2026 after staying at 1% on average last year.
For 2025 and 2026, it predicted that the economy would grow by 4.6% and 4.4%, respectively, compared to 3.8% in 2024. Forecasts say that 5 million tons of wheat will be harvested in 2026 and 4.13 million tons this year.
As a result of fewer energy imports and more exports of auto parts, phosphates, and derivatives, the current account deficit is projected to drop from about 2.3% of GDP this year to 2% of GDP in 2026.
“Trade momentum is expected to continue in the medium term, with the impact of recent U.S. tariff measures likely to remain limited,” said the bank.
It is estimated that Morocco’s foreign exchange reserves will rise from 418 billion dirhams in 2025 to 434.5 billion dirhams ($48 billion) next year. This is enough to cover 5.5 months of merchandise purchases.
This year’s 3.9% budget deficit is expected to drop to 3.4% of GDP in 2026, as rising tax revenues help balance out higher public investment spending, the bank said.
