Even with cargoes arriving from suppliers as far away as South Korea, Europe is on course to be short of jet fuel through the fourth quarter, according to analysts and shipping data. The Asian producer is shaping up as one of the continent's biggest sources this month, shipping more jet fuel to Europe than at any point in nearly four years.
Commodities intelligence firm Kpler puts European imports of South Korean jet fuel at an average of 129,000 barrels per day so far in September, a pace not matched since October 2022. Figures from LSEG point to much the same volume.
Asia has long acted as a swing supplier to Europe, with traders reaching for the region whenever the spread between the two markets makes the voyage pay. Kpler's data shows monthly shipments from Asia to Europe averaged 1.5 million barrels last year.
Since the Iran war began more than six months ago, Europe has been buying more from Nigeria, the United States and Canada. The fighting upended Middle Eastern supply and wiped out roughly half of the continent's jet fuel imports.
James Noel-Beswick, who heads commodities at market intelligence firm Sparta Commodities, expects the buying to carry on, since the region looks set to stay short.
Jet fuel sits in the middle distillate group alongside diesel and gas oil, and the European end of that market has been running hot — diesel prices there hit a record this week and are trading above Asian levels.
As Noel-Beswick explained, the growing spread between Asian and European prices is what makes shipping fuel westward worth a trader's while.
The South Korean barrels are landing at a time when European inventories are already depleted. Independently held stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining and storage hub dropped in the week to September 10 to their lowest in seven years.
South Korean jet fuel output hit almost 13.89 million barrels in July, a seven-year high, and exports reached their strongest level in three and a half years, government figures show.
Heavier crude processing is behind much of that, and traders reckon August runs will top July's. Provisional official data put refinery throughput at 2.7 million barrels per day in July, 16% above the June figure.
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