WTO Raises Forecast for 2025 Trade Growth to 2.4% from 0.9%, Pointing to AI Boom and Robust Developing-World Trade
The WTO increased its 2025 goods trade growth prediction from 0.9% to 2.4%, citing demand from developing countries driven by AI.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly increased its prediction for the growth of the global goods trade in 2025, citing robust trade performance among developing economies, early import activity in the United States amid tariff concerns, and rising demand for products related to artificial intelligence.
The Geneva-based organization stated in its Global Trade Outlook and Statistics Report, which was published on Tuesday, that it now projects merchandise trade to grow by 2.4% this year, a considerable increase from its 0.9% projection in August. WTO experts had predicted a 0.2% drop as recently as April.
However, the 2026 projection has been downgraded from 1.8% to 0.5% in anticipation of a decline after the present upswing.
According to WTO Senior Economist Marc Bacchetta, “structural investments in digital infrastructure, from semiconductors to cloud servers, seem to have been fuelled by the rise in AI-related trade.” The paper claims that goods related to AI contributed for 42% of the rise in global trade, which is far more than their 15% proportion of global trade.
Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala also noted that the momentum was maintained by consistent commerce between developing countries and a measured international reaction to tariff increases, including those implemented by the Trump administration earlier this year.
“Trade setbacks in 2025 were lessened by countries’ measured responses to tariff changes generally, the growth potential of AI, and increased trade among emerging economies,” Okonjo-Iweala stated.
In the first half of 2025, South-South trade, or trade between developing nations, increased 8% year over year, outpacing the 6% growth in the value of world trade overall.
However, the WTO warned that growing trade barriers and policy ambiguity continue to pose serious threats to future performance, which might stifle progress in additional economies and industries.
