Exclusive: Barrick Mining takes the Mali gold complex off its output forecast for 2025, sources say

Barrick Mining (ABX.TO) has added to the consequences from a two-year fight over new mining legislation intended to increase the West African nation’s revenue by removing its Mali gold complex from its overall output prediction for 2025, four sources told Reuters.

Operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto gold complex, one of the biggest gold assets owned by Canadian miners in Africa, have been halted since January after the military-led government detained employees, seized three metric tons of stock, and prevented the world’s third-largest gold miner from exporting the precious metal during separate talks over a new mining contract with Barrick.

Due to the record-high price of gold this year, both parties stand to gain at least $1 billion in revenue. Mali runs the risk of turning off potential investors, and Barrick’s stock has underperformed its competitors.

Since the sources were not permitted to speak in public, they spoke on condition of anonymity.

Both Barrick and Mali’s Mines Ministry spokespersons did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

Although Morningstar analysts had projected that Mali will contribute about 250,000 ounces in 2025, Barrick has not disclosed its Mali output prediction.

In May, the government of Mali, a shareholder in the complex, requested that a domestic court designate a temporary administrator to reopen the complex, so stripping Barrick of authority over the mines that produced 14% of its overall output, Jefferies said.

The subject will be heard in court on Thursday.

Concurrent with the court case, negotiations are still going on. According to two persons with knowledge of the situation, Barrick has made a major concession by agreeing to repatriate 20% of its profits into an international bank account, something that Mali did not grant to any other foreign miners who recently renegotiated contracts with the state.

Still, officials want all future problems to be resolved in local courts, which is one area of disagreement between Barrick and Mali. According to one person and another source with knowledge of the situation, Barrick stated that any new mining contract should be governed by an international treaty and that global arbitration should be used to resolve any future conflicts.

Even if the miner eventually regains control of the complex, it may be left with diminished gold reserves, according to one of the individuals, which is why investors are concerned about the possibility of a provisional administration even though high gold prices have helped Barrick’s worldwide earnings.

International arbitration procedures against Mali were initiated by Barrick in December. It requested in May that the arbitration court of the World Bank put a stop to the Bamako court proceedings for provisional administration. That request was denied by the tribunal, according to two people with knowledge of the development.

In the instance, the head of the arbitration panel chose not to comment.

Mali output generated $949 million for Barrick in the first nine months of 2024. Last December, Jefferies predicted in an analyst analysis that Barrick would lose 11% of its projected 2025 profits before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization if the Mali complex remained idle.

Mali is the third-largest producer of gold in Africa.

Malian officials, who took over in 2020 and 2021, claim that their current arrangement with Barrick is unjust.

Other international miners have entered into new arrangements with the state. Last year, during discussions, the CEO of Australian miner Resolute was held for over a week.