Exclusive: A fearing a return of Islamists, Somalia requests that peacekeepers delay their exit

Documents obtained by Reuters reveal that Somalia’s government is attempting to delay the departure of African peacekeepers and is apprehensive about a possible security void. This is due to concerns from surrounding nations regarding the possibility of al Shabaab militants regaining control.

The peacekeeping African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) is scheduled to leave by December 31, at which point a new, smaller force is anticipated to take its place.

Nonetheless, the government requested last month to postpone until September the departure of half of the 4,000 troops that were scheduled to depart by the end of June in a letter to the acting chair of the African Union Peace and Security Council. The letter has never before been publicized.

The government had already suggested that the overall pullout timeline be modified “based on the actual readiness and capabilities” of Somali forces in a joint report with the AU that was reviewed by Reuters in March. A “hasty drawdown of ATMIS personnel will contribute to a security vacuum,” according to the joint assessment that was ordered by the UN Security Council.

Mursal Khalif is an independent member of parliament’s defense committee. “I’ve never been more concerned about the direction of my home country,” he remarked.

According to four diplomatic sources and a senior Ugandan official, the United States and the European Union, which are the main sponsors of the African Union force in Somalia, have attempted to scale back the peacekeeping effort because of worries about sustainability and long-term funding.

According to three of the diplomatic sources, the AU first pushed for a more expansive mission than Somalia desired, which complicated the negotiations for a new force. A bitter political issue may force Ethiopia to withdraw some of its most experienced soldiers.

Requests for comment were not answered by the prime minister’s office or the presidency of Somalia. The request to postpone the withdrawal until this month, according to National Security Adviser Hussein Sheikh-Ali, was made in order to coordinate the drawdown with the post-ATMIS mission planning.

After this story was published, he commented, “The notion that there is a ‘fear of al Shabaab resurgence’ is dramatized.”

The chairman of ATMIS and the AU’s special envoy to Somalia, Mohamed El-Amine Souef, stated that while there was no set date for finishing the talks, all sides were dedicated to reaching a deal that would contribute to long-term stability and security.

“The AU and Somalia’s government have emphasized the importance of a conditions-based drawdown to prevent any security vacuum,” according to him.
Later on Thursday, the Peace and Security Council is scheduled to convene in Somalia to deliberate on the withdrawal and subsequent mission.

With 5,000 of the approximately 18,500 troops leaving last year, the drawdown is still underway, despite the government’s predicted confidence. It has stated that the new force should be confined to securing major population areas and should not number more than 10,000.

Rashid Abdi, an analyst with Sahan Research, a Nairobi-based think tank that focuses on the Horn of Africa, said that the desire for a smaller force probably represents the opinions of nationalists who are against a significant foreign presence in Somalia.

Concerned neighbors

Concerns are also raised by Kenya and Uganda, two countries who sent troops on the outgoing mission.

The state minister for foreign affairs of Uganda, Henry Okello Oryem, stated that Somali troops could not maintain a protracted military conflict in spite of rigorous training efforts.

“We do not want to get into a situation where we are fleeing, the kind of thing that we saw in Afghanistan,” he stated to Reuters.

According to Oryem, Kenya has complied with the US and EU’s request for a drawdown, but other nations with soldiers in Somalia should also voice their concerns.

Last month, in Washington, Kenyan President William Ruto told reporters that if the country withdrew without taking into consideration the situation on the ground, “the terrorists will take over Somalia.”

In response to inquiries, a representative for the European Union stated that the organization was concentrated on enhancing internal security capabilities and that it endorsed the request of the Somali government for a new mission with a scaled-down mission.

According to a representative for the US State Department, the force ought to be sizable enough to avoid a security void. According to the spokesperson, Washington has backed every request made by the AU to the U.N. Security Council to change the withdrawal schedule.

The spokesperson stated that it was crucial to prevent security lapses or needless costs “caused by swapping out existing troop contributors” in response to a query concerning Ethiopian forces.

SETBACKS

Large tracts of land were first taken from al Shabaab two years ago by an army effort in central Somalia.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud announced in August that he intended to “eliminate” the potent al Qaeda affiliate in five months.

However, Cowsweyne was recaptured by al Shabaab as they launched a counteroffensive a few days later. A soldier, an allied militiaman, and a local said that they had executed several citizens who were suspected of aiding the army and killed numbers of soldiers.

In an interview in April, Ahmed Abdulle, a militiaman from a clan in central Somalia, stated, “This broke the hearts of Somalis but gave courage to al Shabaab.”

The Somali government did not reply to a request for a death toll for this story and has never before made available a figure for the Cowsweyne war.

“Over a battalion’s worth of troops were present in Cowsweyne, but their organization was lacking,” stated Issa, a soldier who participated in the battle that took place there in August of last year.

Issa claimed that on the day of the attack, automobile bombs had burst past the gates of the Cowsweyne army camp, alleging a lack of defensive outposts to shield bases from such assaults.

Following more failures on the battlefield, ten soldiers, militiamen from the local clans, and townspeople in the areas targeted by the military campaign reported no army actions in the previous two months.

Reuters was unable to independently confirm how much territory al Shabaab had lost. This week, National Security Advisor Sheikh-Ali stated on X that the army had maintained the majority of its conquests.

With the peacekeepers gone, holding territory might become more challenging. Estimates of Somalia’s army put it at about 32,000 soldiers, although in the evaluation with the AU, the government admitted that there was a deficit of about 11,000 trained people because of “high operational tempo” and “attrition”.

According to the government, its military can take on al Shabaab with little outside assistance.

In recent years, Somalia has increased the number of its security troops, defying previous dire forecasts.

The threat posed by Shabaab suicide bombers and mortars is attested to by the city’s ubiquitous blast walls, but residents of Mogadishu, the capital by the sea, claim that security has improved. Exquisite restaurants and supermarkets are opening, and once-quiet streets are now busy with traffic.

An evaluation by the Combating Terrorism Center at the USMA in April stated that, with continued outside assistance, it was improbable that there would be a collapse comparable to that of Afghanistan.

For example, the United States regularly launches drone strikes against suspected extremists in Somalia and maintains 450 troops there to advise and train local forces.

Nonetheless, due of their greater cohesiveness and use of force, the militants’ projected 7,000–12,000 combatants would make them “slightly militarily stronger” than Somali forces, according to the assessment’s author, Paul D. Williams, a professor of international politics at George Washington University.

GLOBAL SUPPORT

Since Ethiopian forces invaded Somalia in 2006, overthrowing an Islamist-led government and sparking an insurgency that has since claimed tens of thousands of lives, Somalia’s security has been guaranteed by outside resources.

A research conducted last year by Brown University found that since 2007, the United States has spent more than $2.5 billion on counterterrorism aid. Undisclosed military and intelligence spending on operations like drone strikes and the deployment of US combat forces is not included in that figure.

According to the EU, since 2007, it has given ATMIS and its predecessor roughly $2.8 billion. Other Middle Eastern nations like Qatar and Turkey also offer security support.

However, resources are getting scarce. According to four diplomatic sources, the EU, which provides the majority of ATMIS’s yearly budget of approximately $100 million, is moving toward bilateral support with the goal of lowering its total contributions in the medium run.

According to two diplomats who were contacted by Reuters and who spoke anonymously to discuss private talks, the EU and the US want to reduce peacekeeping efforts because they have competing budgetary priorities, such as Gaza and Ukraine, and they believe Somalia should be in charge of its own security.

According to the four diplomatic sources, several European nations want the new mission to be funded by assessed contributions from UN members, which would put more financial strain on China and the US.

A spokesman for the State Department stated that while there was broad support from around the world for the follow-on mission, the United States did not think such a system could be put into place by next year. Concerns regarding the funding of the replacement mission were not addressed by the EU.
Only once Somalia and the AU reach a consensus on a proposed mission’s size and scope can the new mission’s financing be formally discussed.