Reuters poll: Ghanaian and Kenyan central banks will halt interest rates in the days leading up to May

As inflation issues in the area point to a cautious approach for policymakers, a Reuters poll released on Thursday revealed that the Bank of Ghana and the Central Bank of Kenya will halt interest rate cuts at their next meetings and restart in May.

While central banks in nations directly targeted by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs halt or terminate their cutting cycles, certain African central banks are anticipated to make cuts of 125–400 basis points (bps) this year.

According to the study, rates would be lowered by 100 basis points to 26.00% in May and by another 125 basis points to 24.75% in the third quarter. The Bank of Ghana (BOG) has already lowered rates by 300 basis points since last year. The year ended with the key rate at 23.00%.

Out of ten analysts polled between March 20 and 26, all but one predicted that the BOG would maintain rates at Monday’s monetary policy meeting.

Kevin Daly, managing director and senior economist at Goldman Sachs, commented, “We believe that the BOG will hold rates at 27.00% in Ghana due to inflation that is hovering well above target and recent FX weakness.”

“That said, given the BOG’s history of premature monetary easing, the possibility of a cut cannot be completely ruled out.”

Similar arguments for halting exist in Kenya, where the central bank is expected to maintain the benchmark rate at 10.75% by all but one analyst. April 8 is the deadline for the Nairobi meeting.

Kenya’s inflation rate increased to 3.5% in February, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth.

Rates are anticipated to drop 75 basis points to 10.00% in May and then 50 basis points in the third quarter, bringing the year-end rate to 9.50%. Rates have been lowered by 200 basis points since August by the Central Bank of Kenya.

According to Rafiq Raji, a non-resident senior associate with the Africa program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., “Disinflation in the coming months will motivate rate cuts in Kenya and Ghana.”

At its meeting to be held next month through the end of June, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is anticipated to maintain rates at their current level. In the third quarter, they will cut them by 150 basis points to 26.00%, and in November, they will cut them by 100 basis points to 25.00%.

Rates been increased by 475 basis points since the beginning of the year by the CBN. It rebased its Consumer Price Index to reflect changes in consumption habits, and a month later, inflation there decreased to 23.18% in February from 31.70% a year earlier.