India’s Air Force Must Choose Between Increasing Domestic Fighter Production and Purchasing American F-35s

India must decide whether to prioritize its domestic fighter jet development or invest in expensive F-35 aircraft in order to modernize its Air Force.

India must decide how to modernize its air force, but is a state-of-the-art American fighter jet the solution?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with US President Donald Trump on his trip to Washington last month, and he declared that they were “paving the way” for India to purchase F-35s, a type of plane that is mainly sold to close allies and partners.

A “fifth generation” multi-role fighter plane, the F-35 boasts sophisticated sensors, AI-powered combat systems, and smooth data-sharing. The most advanced jet in the sky, designed to avoid radar, is also one of the priciest, costing $80 million each. One essential quality of a “fifth generation” fighter is stealth.

With its fighter squadrons shrinking and China’s military expanding, many think India must make the difficult decision to either invest in the expensive but cutting-edge US F-35 or fortify defense relations with Russia by producing its most sophisticated stealth fighter jet, the Sukhoi Su-57, domestically.

The reality, according to experts, is more complex, with the US-Russia “dogfight” primarily being a media hoax that was recently stoked by both jets’ appearances at Asia’s largest air show, Aero India, in the southern city of Bangalore, last month.

Ashley J. Tellis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, believes that Trump’s offer of the F-35 is more “symbolic” than useful and is motivated by his desire to sell US weapons.

It would be difficult to incorporate a “fifth generation” aircraft into the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) plans, which are focused on the domestic Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) and further Rafales, particularly in the absence of co-production rights. India’s first stealth fighter, the AMCA, is being developed by the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO).

India is not likely to be offered the F-35 for co-production; any purchase will probably be a straight-forward transaction. Among other reasons, this is unlikely to align with Modi’s focus on domestic manufacturing, and India is unlikely to embrace the extensive end-user surveillance in the event of an F-35 sale, Mr. Tellis stated.

According to security expert Stephen Bryen, author of a Substack blog, Weapons and Strategy, the F-35’s availability for the US Air Force is approximately 51%. India faces difficulties with the jet because to its high cost, extensive maintenance requirements, and operational problems. “The question is whether India, knowing it would be better off purchasing the Russian jet, is willing to spend billions of rupees on the F-35.”

However, many reject the Su-57 as a serious contender, pointing out that India ended the ten-year agreement to co-produce the jet with Russia in 2018 due to disagreements over cost-sharing, technology transfer, and specifications.

Indeed, India’s air force is getting older and has fewer fighter jets.

Compared to the sanctioned 42 fighter and combat squadrons, it operates 31—mostly Russian and Soviet-era aircraft. Finding a long-term substitute for the Russian Sukhoi-30, the IAF’s multipurpose workhorse, is a major challenge.

Political scientist Christopher Clary of the University of Albany recently brought attention to concerning data from the ISS Military Balance for India: India’s fleet decreased by 151 aircraft between 2014 and 2024, while Pakistan acquired 31 and China added 435 fighter and ground attack aircraft.

India intends to purchase more than 500 fighter planes, primarily light combat aircraft, as part of its primarily domestic fighter jet growth.

Orders for 83 Tejas Mark 1A, a domestic, nimble, multirole fighter, have been confirmed, and another 97 are anticipated to follow. The larger, more sophisticated Mark 2 is being developed in the meantime. At least ten years will pass before the domestic stealth plane is ready.

The largest obstacle to India’s intentions to purchase 114 multirole fighter jets under the IAF’s $20 billion Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program is the requirement that foreign jets be constructed in India through a technology transfer agreement.

After being criticized for the purchase of 36 Rafales in a government-to-government agreement, the Indian government has been looking at a transparent and non-controversial procurement method since 2019. Rafale is in the lead among the five jets in the competition because it is already in use by the IAF.

Three major obstacles, according to experts, stand in the way of India’s air force modernization: a lack of finance, delays, and reliance on foreign aircraft.

Real defense spending has decreased. The foreign fighter jet program runs the possibility of a protracted outcome. India places a higher priority on domestic production, while DRDO’s delays compel stopgap international acquisitions, which feeds the cycle. Delivering a competent domestic jet on schedule is necessary to break it.

A shortage of General Electric’s F-404 engines for the jets is another factor delaying deliveries.

According to Rahul Bhatia, an analyst at the geopolitical risk consulting firm Eurasia Group, a major obstacle is the misalignment between the IAF’s requirements and the defense ministry’s vision.

The air force was initially skeptical about the Tejas Mark 1, which resulted in improvements such as the Mark 1A and Mark 2. “But the armed forces are frustrated by the decades-long development cycles, particularly as their needs continue to change as newer technologies become available, which leads to more delays,” Mr. Bhatia stated.

Even AP Singh, the head of the Indian Air Force, has expressed his annoyance about delays.

At a recent seminar, Air Marshall Singh stated, “I can make a commitment that I won’t buy anything from outside or that I will wait for whatever is developed in India, but it might not be possible if it does not come at that pace on time.”

We are all aware of how dire our situation is right now in terms of the amount of combatants.

Additionally, the promised numbers are also arriving a little slowly. In reference to the delayed Tejas Mark 1A deliveries, which were expected to start last February but haven’t started, he stated, “There will be a requirement to go and look for something which can quickly fill up these voids.”

More than $1 billion has already been allocated to the creation of a domestic stealth fighter, making it India’s top priority. According to Mr. Bhatia, “a foreign stealth jet would only be considered if India’s immediate threat perception shifts.” The J-20 and J-35, China’s two so-called stealth warplanes, probably don’t measure up to US requirements.

According to the majority of experts, India will not select either Russian or American combatants. As demonstrated in previous conflicts, emergency purchases could temporarily close deficits. According to Mr. Bhatia, “the long game is obviously building its own, but the medium-term focus is co-production.”

India’s future air force depends on producing jets, preferably with a powerful Western ally, rather than merely purchasing them. However, the timely delivery of India’s domestic fighters is essential to the success of that vision.