Merz’s journey to power will be challenging following Germany’s election victory

After winning a national election, German conservatives led by Friedrich Merz pledged Monday to swiftly form a government. However, the far-right and far-left parties’ strongholds might make coalition negotiations difficult and lead to an obstructionist parliament.

With Germans split over immigration, its security stuck between an aggressive China and Russia and a belligerent U.S., and companies requesting assistance to stay internationally competitive, time is of the essence for Europe’s struggling largest economy.

Merz’s conservative group seeks to form an alliance with Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), who finished third, following the historic second-place rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Merz’s attempt to form a coalition with the SPD, however, follows a campaign that exposed severe policy differences, particularly with regard to movement. Given its poorest post-war performance, the SPD could demand a steep price for any agreement.

With a combined one-third of seats in the next parliament, the AfD and the radical Left Party are blocking constitutional amendments that would increase state borrowing caps, which some economists believe are essential to reviving the faltering economy.

Merz said on Monday that he was negotiating with interested parties to change the debt brake that limits borrowing. Also, he would consult with supporters about setting up a second special off-budget fund to increase defense expenditures.

Merz, who had previously been seen as an Atlanticist, cast doubt on the United States’ dependability as an ally after making similar remarks on Sunday night.

“And what we also see with the greatest concern, of course, is the attempt (by U.S. President Donald Trump) to make a deal with Russia on Ukraine over the heads of the Europeans, over the heads of Ukraine,” said the president.

Merz stated, “It will not surprise you when I say that this is unacceptable both for Ukraine and for Europe.” He also added that it would be challenging for people who choose “America First” to truly adopt “America Alone” as their credo.

“IT IS FIVE MIDNIGHT.”

He stated that Europeans must now work quickly to create their own defense capacity and not just depend on Washington.
“… This really is five minutes to midnight for Europe.”

Merz had compared Washington’s “outrageous” remarks during the election campaign to Moscow’s unfriendly activities earlier on Sunday.

Furthermore, he cautioned Washington against causing rifts by giving certain EU countries preferred tariffs.

On Monday, Merz made yet another audacious step by inviting Benjamin Netanyahu to go to Germany, despite the International Criminal Court’s arrest order for the Israeli prime minister related to suspected war crimes in Gaza.

According to preliminary data, the AfD got 20.8%, its best-ever performance, while Merz’s conservative CDU/CSU party received 28.5%, their second-worst showing since the end of World War II.

But mainstream parties don’t want to collaborate with the AfD, which has been backed by American billionaires like Elon Musk and is watched by German security authorities on suspicion of radicalism.

A parliamentary blocking minority held by the AfD and a resurgent Left party might prevent any rise in defense spending that is required to support European security.

On Monday, the Left declared that it wanted to borrow additional money, but that its backing will depend on the money not being used for rearmament. The Left is against military assistance to Ukraine, as is the AfD.

Jan van Aken, a co-leader of the Left, warned that his party will oppose any effort to cut social expenditure, saying, “Friedrich Merz must brace himself now.”

The BSW, a socialist splinter party led by Sahra Wagenknecht that just missed entering parliament with 5% of the vote, might contest the election results. In such case, Merz would have to rely on a third party to form a government, most likely the Greens.

HARD TALKS AHEAD

With no prior experience in administration, Merz hopes to form a cabinet by Easter, but the SPD cautioned that its backing was not guaranteed.

During the election campaign, Merz declared he would not compromise on immigration and pledged a harsh crackdown. He received harsh criticism from the SPD for urging the AfD to approve a parliamentary resolution on migration last month.

Opponents viewed the action as an unacceptable violation of a political quarantine intended to prevent the AfD from gaining power. Consequently, SPD lawmakers stated they could no longer rely on Merz.

According to analysts, there is pressure on the next coalition to form swiftly in order to withstand the Trump administration and to repel the AfD by demonstrating that mainstream parties are capable of addressing the concerns of the electorate.

Otherwise, the 12-year-old AfD, which is expected to be the biggest opposition party in the Bundestag, may be a strong contender in the next 2029 elections.

Musk declared on X that the AfD “will be the majority party by the next election” and expressed his continued support for the party.