“Post-election unrest” in Mozambique will hurt economic growth, says an IMF official

The impact of Cyclone Chido and post-election civil turmoil are likely to cause Mozambique’s 2024 GDP growth to be lowered downward from a previous estimate of 4.3%, according to a senior International Monetary Fund (IMF) official.

The results of the October presidential election, which opposition groups claim was tainted by vote irregularities, were announced in favor of Daniel Chapo, the candidate of Frelimo, the dominant party of Mozambique.

Since opposition supporters protested the contested election results, there has been an increase in violence. The disturbance has occasionally resulted in the closure of important trade routes and has impacted corporate activities, particularly those of mining firms.

The legality of the election count is set to be decided by Mozambique’s Constitutional Council on December 23. Analysts and civil society organizations believe that if Frelimo’s victory is affirmed, this might lead to further violence and economic disruption.

Reuters was informed by Olamide Harrison, the IMF’s resident representative for Mozambique, that “growth went from 4.5% in the second quarter to 3.7% in the third quarter, before the protests started.”

“In the context of protests, and natural disasters, we expect a further slowdown in the fourth quarter followed by a modest rebound in 2025,” added the economist.

Harrison added that the IMF was keeping a close eye on the “difficult situation” following the protests and expressed sincere regret for the deaths that occurred.

At least 34 people were killed by Cyclone Chido, which made landfall in northern Mozambique over the weekend, and he added it has also hampered growth expectations.

According to Harrison, after a political transition is finished, talks between the IMF and Mozambican authorities would resume for a three-year credit facility program.

“We wait until the new government is in place and then we resume negotiations,” he said, referring to a procedure that is usually followed during an ongoing IMF financing arrangement to a political transition.