Exclusive: Due to uncertainties, Russian grain deliveries to Syria have been halted

Russian and Syrian sources reported Friday that two ships carrying Russian wheat for Syria failed to arrive at their destinations, and that Russian wheat deliveries to Syria have been halted due to payment delays and uncertainties surrounding the new government.

Russia, the biggest wheat exporter in the world, was a strong backer of Bashar al-Assad and circumvented Western sanctions on Syria and Russia by supplying wheat to Syria through intricate financial and logistical arrangements.

According to a Russian government source who spoke to Reuters, deliveries to Syria have been halted because exporters are worried about the future of wheat import management in Syria after the leadership shift in Damascus.

Because of the delicate nature of the situation, the source told Reuters, “I think no one would dare supply wheat to Syria under the current circumstances.”

According to shipping statistics, the Alpha Hermes is sailing toward the Egyptian city of Alexandria after staying off the Syrian shore for a few days, while the Mikhail Nenashev is anchored off the Syrian coast.

In order to sustain Russian supply in spite of sanctions, the Syrian General Establishment for Cereals Processing and Trade (Hoboob), which formerly held wheat procurement bids, has become more and more dependent on a web of foreign middlemen.

The Islamist organization led by rebel leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, which overthrew al-Assad in a quick battle in Damascus last week, is establishing control over Syria’s government by sending out police and appointing temporary leaders.

Syrian sources, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, claim that they have not yet established a new government in Hoboob or another agency for importing commodities.

Interaction between the Russian and interim governments

Vessels were delayed due to payment uncertainties, according to a Syrian source who spoke to Reuters, and Russia and the interim administration were in contact over the matter. Russian exporters were in communication with the Syrian side, according to a Russian industry source.

In an effort to keep its military outposts in Syria, Russia has established direct communication with the political committee of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist rebel group in Syria, according to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov’s statement on Friday. Regarding the wheat trade, he remained silent.

According to a Russian industry source, the roughly 60,000 metric tons of cargo loaded on the two vessels may be sold to another customer because the Syrian side has not paid for the provided wheat.

A total of 33,000 tons of wheat may be transported by the two ships. However, sanctioned Syrian vessels that are hidden from tracking systems are used in part of Russia’s grain trade with Syria.

Russian grain exporters have no intention of unilaterally ceasing to provide wheat to Syria, according to Eduard Zernin, head of the Russian Grain Producers and Exporters Union, who spoke to Reuters this week.

Syria is not a significant user of wheat, according to Zernin, who calculated that the country imports roughly 2 million metric tons of wheat annually. However, if Russia’s wheat supply are disrupted, the nation’s 23 million+ citizens may go hungry.

Syria ranks 24th among Russian wheat customers, and Dmitry Rylko of the IKAR consultancy estimated that 300,000 tons of wheat have been exported to Syria so far this season. Depending on its own produce, Syria imports different things every year.

A successful year for Syria might yield up to 4 million tons of wheat, which would cover internal consumption and allow for modest exports.
However, its grain has been damaged by conflict and multiple droughts, making it necessary for the nation to import goods from the Black Sea region in order to maintain a bread subsidy program that is vital to its citizens.