China’s Middle East diplomacy’s limitations are revealed by the overthrow of Assad in Syria

China welcomed Bashar al-Assad and his wife during their six-day visit little over a year ago, providing the former Syrian leader with a rare reprieve from years of international isolation following the outbreak of a civil war in 2011.

President Xi Jinping pledged to back Assad in “opposing external interference” and in Syria’s reconstruction when the couple attended the Asian Games, and Chinese media praised his wife Asma.

However, observers claim that China’s diplomatic aspirations in the Middle East have been severely damaged and the limitations of its policy in the region have been shown by the sudden end of the authority of the authoritarian leader that Xi so openly supported just last year.

Following a lightning onslaught that overthrew Assad’s government and put an end to his family’s 50-year reign, a coalition of rebels took control of Syria’s capital, Damascus, on Sunday.

According to Jonathan Fulton, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, “there has been a lot of an exaggerated sense of China’s ability to shape political outcomes in the region.”

According to Fulton, the fall of the Assad administration was a setback for China’s global aspirations even though it was perceived as lessening the power of his principal supporters, Iran and Russia, in the Arab world.

“A lot of what (China has) been doing internationally has relied on support with those countries, and their inability to prop up their biggest partner in the Middle East says quite a lot about their ability to do much beyond the region.”

Taking on Hotspots

Chinese media hailed Beijing’s growing prominence in a region long controlled by Washington after China mediated an agreement between longstanding foes Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023.

China will be helpful in addressing “hotspot issues” around the world, according to Wang Yi, china’s top diplomat.

China has repeatedly called for a ceasefire in Gaza and mediated a truce between Fatah, Hamas, and other opposing Palestinian factions earlier this year.

Its Middle Eastern ambassador, Zhai Jun, has conducted rounds of “shuttle diplomacy” and brought Middle Eastern leaders to Beijing, but the fighting in Gaza has persisted and Palestinians have failed to create a unity government in the months that have followed.

“China does not want to see Assad fall from grace,” said Fan Hongda, a Shanghai International Studies University Middle East researcher. “China prefers a more stable and independent Middle East, as chaos or a pro-American orientation in the region does not align with China’s interests.”

China’s foreign ministry has responded mildly to Assad’s overthrow, emphasizing the security of its citizens and urging a “political solution” to bring calm back to Syria as quickly as possible.

“China’s friendly relations with Syria are for all Syrian people,” Mao Ning, the spokesperson for the ministry of foreign affairs, stated on Monday, thus leaving room for interaction with the incoming administration.

Beijing would now wait to recognize a new government in Damascus, according to Chinese diplomats and experts.

They claim that although it may utilize its financial might and experience to aid in reconstruction, its commitments will probably be modest given China’s recent efforts to reduce its foreign financial risks.

Due in part to sanctions, China has not made any major investments in Syria since it joined China’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative in 2022.

Beijing is “not really able to fundamentally replace the West either as an economic partner, or diplomatic or military force in the region,” according to Bill Figueroa, a specialist in relations between China and the Middle East and an assistant professor at the University of Groningen.

“China in 2024 has way less money than China in 2013 – 2014, when the BRI was launched,” Figueroa stated. There’s “an obvious reassessment going on in the direction of safer investments and reducing China’s risks overall,” he stated.