The election in Mozambique is expected to extend the 50-year rule of the ruling Frelimo party

Mozambicans will vote on Wednesday in an election that almost certainly will see the ruling party Frelimo keep its 50-year hold on power, even though a popular newcomer will put up a strong fight.

Filipe Nyusi is turning down as president after two terms, and Daniel Chapo, the party’s candidate, is likely to take his place. Since Mozambique got its freedom from Portugal in 1975, Frelimo has been in charge. It held its first elections in 1994. Since then, opponents and election monitors have repeatedly accused it of rigging them, which it denies.

Political experts say that this time, the independent candidate Venancio Mondlane has won over young people who are unhappy with Frelimo and is the biggest danger to the party in years. He is also a threat to Renamo, the official opposition party. Renamo used to be a guerrilla force that fought a decades-long war in the bush against the government.

The winner will take over an Islamist uprising in the north that has stopped gas projects worth billions of dollars and forced hundreds of thousands of people to leave their homes.

Chapo told a crowd of cheering fans in Maputo on Sunday, “These places where there is terrorism are an attack on all Mozambicans.” He also promised to protect Mozambique’s “peace, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.”

It is also coming out of an economic disaster that was partly caused by a scandal over hidden debt. The country has 35 million people.

European Union monitors said that there were cases of intimidation, stuffing ballot boxes, purposely invalidating opposition votes, and changing polling station results during the 2019 election.

Reuters asked Frelimo’s spokesperson about claims of vote-rigging in past elections and whether the party would accept the results of this election if it lost. The spokesperson did not answer. In the past, people in charge of the party have ignored or denied reports of fraud.

Activists and experts expect protests, which have been violently put down in the past, if the results are called into question.

Adriano Nuvunga, who runs the neighborhood Center for Democracy and Human Rights, said, “We know that in the end, things will stay the same.” But he also said that Mondlane’s campaign was making people excited and increasing the chance of trouble after the election.

This year, Mondlane, who is 50 years old, left Renamo to start his campaign for president. Renamo’s candidate is its leader, Ossufo Momade. He was a rebel general in Mozambique’s civil war from 1977 to 1992, which killed about a million people, many of whom died of hunger, and left thousands of people with missing limbs from landmines.

GAS SPECIALS

People don’t know much about Chapo, who is 47 years old. He is seen as Frelimo’s attempt to present a new face and appeal to younger people. Robert Besseling, CEO of consulting firm Pangea-Risk, said, “He is seen as business-friendly, and and as governor of Inhambane province, he ran gas deals.”

“Frelimo wants to see these big gas deals and big mining deals signed off … (so) it can pay back its massive debt burden,” said he. “That is why they brought in Daniel Chapo.”

TotalEnergies had to stop work on a $20 billion liquefied natural gas project in 2021 because of an uprising in Cabo Delgado province by people with ties to Islamic State. Mozambique wants to become a big gas exporter, but ExxonMobil has a project nearby that is also on hold.

Researchers say that at least some of the violence is caused by angry poor people who don’t think they will ever get anything from their natural resources.

“People from the area who are fighting in the insurgency want jobs,” said Joseph Hanlon of The Open University, who has written several books about Mozambique.

Chapo recently said that he would try to talk to the rebel leaders, which would be a new approach. He would also keep fighting on the ground. According to experts, he is also expected to keep working with Rwandan troops.

Hanlon said that the leaders’ plans for the economy are not clear.

“All the candidates say ‘we’re going to create jobs … build roads, have better health and education’ … when the IMF is imposing austerity and there’s no money to do any of this,” said he.

Due to its high debt, Mozambique needed to better handle its budget, the International Monetary Fund said in July, so that it could make room for social spending.