Exclusive: According to sources, Iran’s Khamenei forewarned Nasrallah of an Israeli conspiracy to assassinate him

According to three Iranian sources, Iran’s Supreme commander, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a warning to Hezbollah commander Syyed Hassan Nasrallah to evacuate Lebanon mere days prior to his death in an Israeli airstrike. He is currently experiencing significant anxiety regarding Israeli penetration of senior government positions in Tehran.

One of the sources, a senior Iranian official, informed Reuters that Khamenei sent a message with an envoy to beseech the Hezbollah secretary general to leave for Iran in the immediate aftermath of the attack on Hezbollah’s booby-trapped pagers on Sept. 17. The message cited intelligence reports that suggested Israel had operatives within Hezbollah and was planning to kill him.

The official identified the messenger as Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan, a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander who was present in Nasrallah’s bunker when it was struck by Israeli bombs. He was also slain.

According to a senior Iranian official, Khamenei, who has been in a secure location within Iran since Saturday, personally directed the firing of approximately 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday. In a statement, the Revolutionary Guards claimed that the assault was a response to the deaths of Nasrallah and Nilforoushan.

The statement also referenced Israel’s attacks on Lebanon and the July assassination of Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Haniyeh’s demise has not been attributed to Israel.

Israel initiated a “limited” ground incursion against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon on Tuesday.

Iran’s foreign ministry and the office of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which is responsible for the country’s foreign intelligence agency Mossad, did not respond to inquiries for comment.

Nasrallah’s assassination was the result of two weeks of precise Israeli strikes that have decimated the top military command of Hezbollah, eliminated half of its leadership council, and devastated weapons sites.

The conversations with 10 sources for this story revealed that Iran’s concerns regarding Khamenei’s safety and the erosion of trust within both Hezbollah and Iran’s establishment, as well as between them, could potentially impede the efficient operation of Iran’s Axis of Resistance alliance of anti-Israel irregular armed groups.

Hezbollah has been the most formidable member of the alliance for a long time, having been established with Iran’s support in the 1980s.

It is also difficult for Hezbollah to select a new leader due to the disarray, as four Lebanese sources expressed concern that the ongoing infiltration will jeopardize the successor.

Magnus Ranstorp, a Hezbollah expert at the Swedish Defense University, stated that the significant harm to Hezbollah that was inflicted on the organization diminished Iran’s ability to strike at Israel’s borders. “In essence, Iran lost the largest investment it had for decades.”

“It caused a profound shockwave throughout Iran.” “It also demonstrates the extent to which Iran is deeply infiltrated: they not only killed Nasrallah but also Nilforoushan,” he stated. Nilforoushan was a trusted military adviser to Khamenei.

Ranstorp suggested that Iran’s diminished military capability and leadership cohort could potentially lead to the resumption of attacks against Israeli embassies and personnel abroad, which were more prevalent prior to the emergence of its proxy forces.

Iran conducts arrests.

According to a second senior Iranian official, Nasrallah’s murder has prompted Iranian authorities to conduct a comprehensive investigation into potential infiltrations within Iran’s own ranks, including the influential Revolutionary Guards and senior security officials. The initial official stated that they are particularly concerned with individuals who have relatives residing outside of Iran or travel abroad.

He stated that Tehran developed a heightened sense of suspicion regarding specific members of the Guards who had been traveling to Lebanon. The official also stated that there were concerns raised when one of these individuals began inquiring about Nasrallah’s whereabouts, particularly in relation to the duration of his stay in specific locations.

The individual, along with several others, was apprehended, according to the initial official, following an alarm that was raised in Iran’s intelligence circles. The official stated that the suspect’s family had relocated outside of Iran, but did not provide any information regarding the suspect or his relatives.

The second official stated that the assassination has exacerbated distrust within Hezbollah and between Tehran and Hezbollah.

The official stated, “The trust that was the foundation of everything has dissipated.”

The Supreme Leader “no longer trusts anyone,” according to a third source who is affiliated with Iran’s establishment.

Two Hezbollah sources and a Lebanese security official informed Reuters that Tehran and Hezbollah had already raised concerns about potential Mossad infiltrations following the July death of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in an Israeli airstrike on a secretive Beirut location while he was meeting an IRGC commander. Hamas leader Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran a few hours after that execution.

Although Shukr was a low-profile figure, Nasrallah described him as a central figure in Hezbollah’s history who had built its most significant capabilities at his funeral, in contrast to Haniyeh’s death, Israel publicly claimed responsibility for his death.

Israel’s military has stated that Shukr was instrumental in the development of Hezbollah’s most sophisticated armaments, which included precision-guided missiles, and was responsible for the Shi’ite group’s operations against Israel over the past year.

Iran has harbored concerns regarding Israeli penetration of its upper echelons for many years. Former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stated in 2021 that the head of an Iranian intelligence unit that was intended to target Mossad agents had been an agent for the Israeli spy agency. He also informed CNN Turk that Israel had obtained sensitive documents regarding Iran’s nuclear program, a reference to a 2018 raid in which Israel acquired a vast collection of top-secret documents regarding the program.

Additionally in 2021, Israel’s departing intelligence chief, Yossi Cohen, disclosed the specifics of the raid to the BBC, disclosing that 20 non-Israeli Mossad agents were responsible for the theft of the archive from a warehouse.

WARNING FOR PAGER

Nasrallah was invited to migrate to Iran by Khamenei following the destruction of thousands of pagers and walkie talkies by Hezbollah in deadly attacks on September 17 and 18, according to the initial official. The attacks have been widely attributed to Israel, despite the fact that it has not officially asserted responsibility.

However, the official stated that Nasrallah was secure and had complete confidence in his inner circle, despite Tehran’s significant apprehensions regarding potential infiltrators within Hezbollah.

Khamenei attempted a second attempt by transmitting a message to Nasrallah via Nilforoushan last week, urging him to depart Lebanon and migrate to Iran as a safer location. However, the official stated that Nasrallah was adamant about remaining in Lebanon.

The official stated that Hezbollah and Nasrallah’s safety was the subject of numerous high-level meetings in Tehran subsequent to the pager explosions. However, they declined to disclose the attendees of these meetings.

Concurrently, Hezbollah initiated a significant investigation in Lebanon to eliminate Israeli spies, interrogating hundreds of members following the pager detonations, according to three sources in Lebanon who spoke with Reuters.

According to an official from Hezbollah, Sheikh Nabil Kaouk, a senior member of the organization, was responsible for the investigation. The source stated that the investigation was advancing at a rapid pace when he was slain in an Israeli raid one day following Nasrallah’s slaying. Other senior Hezbollah commanders, some of whom were implicated in the inquiry, were the target of another raid that occurred earlier last week.

According to the source, Kaouk had summoned Hezbollah officials involved in logistics and others who “participated, mediated, and received offers on pagers and walkie-talkies” for interrogation.

The source stated that a “more thorough and in-depth investigation” and purge were now necessary in light of the deaths of Nasrallah and other commanders.

Ali al-Amin, the editor-in-chief of Janoubia, a news site that concentrates on the Shi’ite community and Hezbollah, stated that reports suggest that Hezbollah detained hundreds of individuals for interrogation following the pager saga.

Seven sources stated that Hezbollah is in a state of shock following the assassination of Nasrallah in his deep bunker in a command headquarters, as they are astounded by the extent to which Israel was able to infiltrate the group.

Mohanad Hage Ali, the deputy research director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, a center that specializes in Iran and Hezbollah, characterized the offensive as “the most significant intelligence infiltration by Israel” since Hezbollah was established with Iran’s support in the 1980s.

The recent Israeli escalation is the result of nearly a year of cross-border combat that commenced after Hezbollah initiated rocket attacks in support of its ally Hamas. In an attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, the Palestinian group murdered 1,200 individuals and captured 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

According to the Gaza health ministry, Israel’s reprisal has resulted in the deaths of over 41,000 Palestinians in Gaza.

BREAKAGE OF TRUST

Four sources familiar with the debate within Hezbollah have also reported that the Iranian-backed group has been unable to organize a nationwide funeral on a scale that reflects Nasrallah’s religious and leadership status due to the Israeli offensive and the apprehension of additional attacks on Hezbollah.

One Hezbollah source expressed regret over the fact that officials and religious leaders were unable to step forward to properly honor the late leader, stating, “No one can authorize a funeral in these circumstances.”

Several commanders who were slain last week were discreetly buried on Monday, with plans for a formal religious ceremony to be conducted upon the conclusion of the conflict.

According to four Lebanese sources, Hezbollah is considering the possibility of obtaining a religious decree to provisionally bury Nasrallah and then conducting an official funeral when the circumstances allow.

According to them, Hezbollah has declined to officially designate a successor to Nasrallah, potentially in order to prevent his replacement from becoming a target for an Israeli assassination.

“Appointing a new Secretary General could be dangerous if Israel assassinates him right after,” indicated Amin. “The group can’t risk more chaos by appointing someone only to see them killed.”