Paetongtarn Shinawatra was elected as the youngest Prime Minister of Thailand

The parliament of Thailand elected Paetongtarn Shinawatra as its youngest prime minister on Friday, a mere day after she was propelled into the public eye amid an unyielding power struggle between the country’s contending elites. Shinawatra is a political novice.

Two days after her ally Srettha Thavisin was dismissed as premier by a judiciary that has been central to Thailand’s two decades of intermittent turmoil, the 37-year-old daughter of divisive political heavyweight Thaksin Shinawatra successfully navigated a house vote and is now facing a baptism of fire.

Paetongtarn may be confronted with the legacy and political future of the affluent Shinawatra family, which suffered its first election defeat in over two decades last year and was compelled to negotiate an agreement with its vehement military adversaries in order to establish a government.

She is set to become the second female prime minister in Thailand and the third member of the Shinawatra family to hold the position. Her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, and her father, Thaksin, are the most influential and controversial politicians in the nation.

Paetongtarn expressed her sorrow and mystification regarding Srettha’s dismissal in her inaugural media statements as prime minister-elect. She concluded that it was time to assume her role.

“I talked to Srettha, my family and people in my party and decided it was about time to do something for the country and the party,” she told the media.

“I am optimistic that I will be able to contribute to the ongoing progress of the nation.” Yes, that is my objective. “I am deeply grateful and filled with joy today.”

Paetongtarn secured a resounding victory with almost two-thirds of the assembly, or 319 ballots. She responded to her victory by sharing a photo of her lunch, which consisted of chicken rice, on Instagram with the caption, “The first meal after listening to the vote.”

CAST OF CARDS

Paetongtarn has never held a government position, and the decision to include her in the performance is a gamble for Pheu Thai and its 75-year-old figurehead Thaksin.

She will confront numerous obstacles upon her arrival, including the economy’s collapse, the emergence of a rival political party, and the decline in Pheu Thai’s popularity, which has yet to fulfill its centerpiece cash distribution program, which is valued at 500 billion baht ($14.25 billion).

As of 9:00 a.m. GMT on Friday, Thailand’s benchmark index (.SETI) was up approximately 1.1%, following a nearly 9% decline this year to date.

“The Shinawatras’ strategy is risky,” stated Nattabhorn Buamahakul, Managing Partner at Vero Advocacy, a government affairs consultancy.
“It puts Thaksin’s daughter in the crosshairs and a vulnerable position.”

The abrupt end of Srettha’s tenure after less than one year in office will serve as a stark reminder of the potential hostility that Paetongtarn may encounter. Thailand is currently embroiled in a tumultuous cycle of coups and court rulings that have resulted in the dissolution of political parties and the overthrow of numerous governments and prime ministers.

The crisis, which has pitted parties with mass appeal against a powerful nexus of conservatives, old money families, and royalist generals with deep affiliations in key institutions, has predominantly affected the Shinawatras and their business allies.

The stakes for the Shinawatras are high.

The court that dismissed Srettha over a cabinet appointment also dissolved the anti-establishment Move Forward Party, the 2023 election winner, nine days ago. The court cited a campaign to amend a law against denigrating the sovereign, which it claimed could undermine the constitutional monarchy, as a possibility.

Pheu Thai’s most formidable adversary, the highly popular opposition, has since united under the umbrella of the People’s Party.

The recent developments also suggest a breakdown in the fragile armistice that was established between Thaksin and his rivals in the establishment and military old guard. This truce had facilitated the tycoon’s dramatic return from 15 years of self-exile in 2023 and his ally Srettha’s election as premier on the same day.

Thaksin’s decision to bet on Paetongtarn at such a critical juncture astounded numerous analysts, who anticipated that he would postpone his dynasty and prevent his daughter from being exposed to the same types of battles that ultimately led to the downfall of himself and his sister Yingluck. Both individuals fled overseas to avoid imprisonment after their governments were overthrown by the military.

This is a substantial wager for Thaksin. “The entire Shinawatra dynasty is at risk of failure if she fails,” stated Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University.
“If she can’t bring the economy back and bring the party back then it could be the end because the People’s Party is gaining more momentum after their dissolution.”

($1 = 35.1000 baht)