Sassou of the Republic of the Congo Republic poised to prolong his lengthy tenure, with an emphasis on succession planning
The President of the Republic of the Congo, Denis Sassou Nguesso, appears poised to prolong his lengthy tenure in the upcoming elections on Sunday, despite concerns regarding his age and the existence of a term limit, which have sparked speculation about his eventual successor.
The 82-year-old former paratrooper initially seized control of the oil-rich Central African nation in a coup back in 1979. He lost the first multi-party elections in the Congo Republic in 1992 but regained power in 1997 following a civil war.
He has now governed for nearly 42 years in total, positioning him as Africa’s third longest-serving leader, following Equatorial Guinea’s Teodoro Obiang and Cameroon’s Paul Biya.
Sassou will contend with six candidates in an election overseen by an organizing commission largely composed of individuals appointed by the ruling Congolese Labour Party. Two of the primary opposition parties are abstaining from the vote, citing a lack of transparency in the process, while numerous potential challengers are either imprisoned or in exile, which raises concerns about the legitimacy of the election and the future of democratic governance in the country. “This election is simply a formality.” “The true stakes are in what follows,” said Remadji Hoinathy of the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies think tank.
A constitutional reform in 2015, enacted in the face of opposition protests, reset the presidential term limit, enabling Sassou to remain in power. However, it also limited presidents to three five-year mandates, indicating that, unless another reform occurs, this will be his final election.
UNPREDICTABLE OUTLOOK FOLLOWING SASSOU
The president has started to address the topic of succession more candidly, informing young supporters at his campaign opening rally on February 28 that his generation is “laying the groundwork” for them to assume leadership roles.
One possible successor is his son, Denis-Christel Sassou Nguesso, who joined the government as Minister of International Cooperation and Public-Private Partnerships in 2021 and has since gained a more prominent public presence.
Some analysts suggest he might not be prepared. “Denis-Christel lacks the same level of authority within the ruling party as his father and is generally unpopular. ” His potential rise to power poses a risk of igniting a brutal struggle for succession,” stated Maja Bovcon, an independent consultant specializing in West and Central Africa.
Other individuals within the ruling system who could assume control include Jean-Dominique Okemba, the head of Congo’s National Security Council and a nephew of the president, as well as Jean-Jacques Bouya, the Minister of Spatial Planning and Major Works and a cousin of Sassou’s.
“Sassou will not relinquish power unless he can pass it on to someone he trusts within his inner circle, whether that be his son or a reliable ally who ensures stability,” Hoinathy stated.
A spokesperson for the government did not provide a response to a request regarding the president’s succession plans.
Growth returns, yet hardship endures.
Sassou’s campaign has emphasized continuity. Five years ago, his slogan was “Let us persist in our journey towards development.” This year, the theme is “Let us accelerate the march.”
Despite the turbulence of Sassou’s early years in power, his country is now one of Central Africa’s more stable states, following a series of upheavals, including the 2023 coup in Gabon and last year’s post-electoral violence in Cameroon.
In 2024, the economy experienced a return to modest per capita growth following a decade-long recession caused by a decline in global oil prices. Oil continues to represent approximately fifty percent of Congo’s GDP and eighty percent of its exports.
The debt-to-GDP ratio, which reached a high of 103.6% in 2020, decreased to approximately 93.6% in 2024, aided by a three-year IMF program that concluded last year, which contributed to the stabilization of public finances. Liquidity pressures persist, as debt servicing in the regional market consumes half of the nation’s tax revenues.
Sassou has pledged to enhance infrastructure, boost investment in agriculture, and promote economic diversification; however, the majority of ordinary Congolese have yet to witness significant improvements thus far.
Over half of Congo’s 6.1 million population, specifically 52%, are living in poverty, a figure that has remained steady since 2021, as reported by the World Bank. The youth unemployment rate stands at approximately 42% in a nation where nearly half of the population is below the age of 18.
At the same time, prosecutors from France and the United States have initiated inquiries into the assets owned overseas by Sassou’s family members. The family has consistently refuted any allegations of misconduct.
“We require improved health care and education,” stated Frédéric Nkou, an unemployed voter in Brazzaville, in an interview with Reuters. “However, with this new term, we can expect to encounter a continuation of the same.”
