US Intelligence Issues Warning About Potential Iranian Retaliatory Attacks Following Khamenei’s Death

The DHS assessment indicates that Iran and its proxies continue to represent a persistent threat to the US following the killing of Khamenei, with a likelihood of cyber attacks on the horizon.

A US intelligence assessment indicates that Iran and its proxy groups may initiate retaliatory attacks against the United States in response to the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in coordinated Israeli and US strikes.

The threat assessment dated February 28, created by the Office of Intelligence and Analysis at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and examined by Reuters, indicates that Iran and its affiliates “probably” present a risk of targeted attacks within the United States, though officials deem a large-scale physical assault improbable.

On Sunday, Iran confirmed the reports regarding Khamenei’s death, which was the result of a strike conducted on Saturday, as initially reported by Israel and US President Donald Trump.

The DHS report indicates that Iran and its proxies “probably pose a persistent threat of targeted attacks in the Homeland,” especially if the confirmation of the Ayatollah’s death incites demands for retaliation.

“While a large-scale physical attack is improbable, Iran and its proxies likely present a continuous threat of targeted attacks within the Homeland and will almost certainly intensify retaliatory actions or calls to action should reports of the Ayatollah’s death be confirmed,” the assessment states.

The report underscores worries that Tehran-aligned entities might escalate both direct and indirect actions targeting US interests.

The DHS has yet to provide a response to the request for comment regarding the assessment.

The intelligence document indicates that, in the short term, cyber operations are the most probable method of retaliation.

It cautions that Iran-aligned “hacktivists” are anticipated to execute low-level cyber attacks on US networks, which may include website defacements and distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks. These actions, though not disastrous, may interfere with public-facing government and private sector systems and increase tensions.

Officials believe that these cyber activities would provide a prompt and noticeable reaction while steering clear of the dangers associated with a direct large-scale military conflict.

According to the DHS assessment, Iran is likely to persist in its efforts to target US and allied interests throughout the Middle East, extending beyond the US mainland.

It states that Tehran would “almost certainly” hold senior US government officials responsible for any protests that arise in the wake of Trump’s recent statement advocating for regime change in Iran.

The warning highlights concerns that Khamenei’s death might energize both state-supported and proxy forces throughout the region, possibly escalating an already unstable conflict.

Although intelligence officials minimize the chances of a significant coordinated physical attack on US soil, the evaluation clearly indicates that retaliatory measures, especially cyber operations and targeted actions, continue to pose an active and evolving threat following the killing of the Iranian leader.