The Philippines holds a high-stakes midterm election in which Marcos and Duterte square off

In the Philippines, voting began Monday in a typically low-key midterm election that is featuring a heated proxy war between Vice President Sara Duterte, who has turned against her former friend, and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

Despite not running for more than 18,000 jobs, Duterte and Marcos have been actively promoting their slates of candidates because their fierce rivalry is influencing a contest that might change the balance of power in the 110 million-person nation.

Marcos’ policy agenda, legacy, and influence over his 2028 successor are all on the line, while Duterte’s political survival may depend on the outcome of the vote. He faces an impeachment trial that could end any future aspirations to become president and carry on his father’s legacy.

The battle between Marcos and Duterte is over a dozen prized seats in the 24-member Senate, a legislature with broad legislative influence and political heft that can mold public opinion and sink presidential dreams, while positions for mayors, governors, and lower house MPs are also up for grabs.

“This election is more than an informal referendum on the Marcos administration,” stated Aries Arugay, a professor of political science at the University of the Philippines.

“The Senate race is the key proxy battle … Marcos needs to retain a majority, or supermajority, to push forward his legislative and economic agenda.”

ACRIMONIOUS FEUD

Following the dissolution of the once-powerful alliance of the Marcos and Duterte families and the sharp decline in popularity of the well-liked Duterte family, which has accused the president of planning a campaign to overthrow the main opponents of his rule, the election has taken on new significance.

What started out as a united front that won the 2022 election descended into a bitter feud that included a barrage of personal accusations and an attempt to remove Duterte from office on claims that she embezzled money, accumulated mysterious wealth, and endangered the lives of the president, first lady, and speaker of the house.

The Senate contest is crucial because its members will serve as jurors in the event that Duterte is removed from office and banned for life if an impeachment trial proceeds. To convict her, a two-thirds majority, or at least 16 votes, are required.

“That alone makes this more than just a typical midterm, so a lot is at stake,” Arugay stated.

Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest by Philippine police in March at the request of the International Criminal Court in The Hague, where he is presently being held over a “war on drugs” that claimed thousands of lives, fueled the flames of an already heated race.

He is running for mayor of his hometown on Monday, despite his jail.

Both Dutertes have contested the accusations against them and denied any misconduct. Marcos has denied having a personal grudge against the Duterte family and has disassociated himself from the impeachment.

With China emerging as a political lightning rod in the election, Marcos has campaigned on his stern stance against Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea, highlighting economic advantages and his defense of sovereignty.

For her part, Sara Duterte has charged that Marcos sold out sovereignty by surrendering a former president to a foreign court.

During her campaign, she questioned, “Who really stands to gain if the Duterte family is eradicated from this world?” “Not the Filipinos.”