Saudi-Israeli relations are unlikely while Trump pursues a $1 trillion deal

Gilded palaces, lavish ceremonies, and the promise of $1 trillion in investments await U.S. President Donald Trump when he arrives in Riyadh on Tuesday. He has long yearned for normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, but the raging war in Gaza has prevented him from achieving it.

According to a U.S. official and two Gulf sources close to official circles, U.S. officials are privately pressuring Israel to accept an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, which is one of Saudi Arabia’s requirements for any restart of normalization negotiations.

Speaking to a crowd at the Israeli embassy in Washington this week, Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff stated that he anticipated immediate progress on broadening the Abraham Accords, a series of agreements negotiated during his first term that recognized Israel and included the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.

Witkoff stated in a video of his address, “We anticipate making some or many announcements very, very soon, which we hope will result in progress by next year.” He’s anticipated to travel with Trump to the Middle East.

However, two of the sources stated that it is doubtful that such talks with Riyadh will advance because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu opposes both the establishment of a Palestinian state and a lasting halt to the war.

There are no official diplomatic relations between the two largest developed economies and military forces in the Middle East since Saudi Arabia does not acknowledge Israel as legitimate. Normalizing relations is supported on the grounds that it will offset Iran’s influence and bring stability and prosperity to the area.

The onset of Israel’s war in Gaza has made establishing links particularly poisonous for Saudi Arabia, the cradle of Islam.

Therefore, six other individuals Reuters talked with for this story, including two Saudi and two U.S. officials, said the issue, which was at the center of bilateral negotiations during Trump’s first term, has been successfully delinked from economic and other security considerations between Washington and the kingdom. Everyone who spoke about delicate diplomatic discussions asked to remain anonymous.

“Before he re-engages with the issue of normalization,” former U.S. negotiator Dennis Ross stated that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, wants the Gaza war to stop and a viable route to a Palestinian state.

As for Trump’s trip, the six sources say Washington and Riyadh would prioritize the economic alliance and other regional issues. According to officials from both sides, lucrative investments including large arms agreements, massive projects, and artificial intelligence are in play.

It was the first official state visit of Trump’s second term, and diplomatic discussions between U.S. and Saudi officials prior to the trip solidified the strategy, they added.

The crown prince’s initial commitment of $600 billion is part of Trump’s stated goal to win a trillion-dollar investment in U.S. companies.

The affluent nation, which leads the world in oil exports, is well-versed in the custom: impress the visitor, win their favor. Reuters was informed by the sources that the objective is to avoid diplomatic pitfalls and possibly to persuade Trump to make concessions over the Gaza war and its aftermath.

“The goal of the Trump administration is for this trip to be significant. According to Robert Mogielnicki, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, a Washington-based think tank, “that means a lot of big promises and partnerships that can be marketed as beneficial for America.”

“It is much more difficult to normalize relations with Israel than it is to give President Trump the benefit of the doubt and announce investment agreements,” he stated.

Regarding any agreement made before to the trip, a State Department official said Trump “will look to strengthen ties between the United States and our Arab Gulf partners during the visits” but would not comment.

When asked for response, the Saudi government’s press office did not respond.

THE KINGDOM COURTING

A historic diplomatic deal was being finalized by the crown prince before Hamas started its October 7 strikes on Israel, killing 1,200 people and igniting the devastating Israeli offensive into Gaza. The deal was a U.S. military treaty in exchange for Riyadh’s recognition of Israel.

The scope of Israel’s onslaught, which has killed 52,000 people and displaced 1.9 million in Gaza, however, compelled the negotiations to halt. Israel is accused of genocide by Bin Salman.

According to the two Gulf sources, Trump may use his visit to provide a U.S. framework to end the 18-month war in Gaza, as he is frustrated by the way the protracted issue has affected normalization efforts.

According to them, the proposal might lead to the establishment of a transitional administration and new security arrangements for Gaza after the conflict, which might change regional diplomacy and pave the way for future normalization negotiations.

According to Axios, Trump met in private with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer on Thursday to discuss the war and nuclear negotiations with Iran, highlighting the high-stakes diplomacy at play.

Regarding Trump’s talks on Gaza, the U.S. State Department did not immediately answer inquiries.

Trump has notably made no mention of visiting Israel on his regional tour. The president of the United States has recently avoided discussing his “Gaza Riviera” proposal, which infuriated the Arab world by proposing the relocation of all Gazans and American control over the territory, according to two diplomats.

Several steps that are beneficial to Saudi Arabia have been done by Washington in the lead-up to the trip. In Yemen, a Saudi ceasefire is consistent with an agreement to halt U.S. bombing of the Houthis. The normalization issue has also been separated from civil nuclear negotiations by Washington.

In order to circumvent congressional resistance, the stalled Saudi-American defense pact—which was first intended as a formal treaty—was resurrected late in the Biden administration with a reduced scope of security guarantees.

Those discussions, along with those regarding a civilian nuclear agreement, have now been taken up by the Trump administration, according to three sources, who also warned that defining terms will take time.

Chinese Influence

After traveling to Rome to attend the pope’s funeral, Trump’s journey to Saudi Arabia is his second overseas trip since winning reelection and his first official state visit. He will travel to the United Arab Emirates and Qatar as well.

In addition to the spectacle of Trump’s trips, officials say there is a deliberate U.S. attempt to reclaim power and redefine business ties in an area where Beijing, Washington’s main economic adversary, has been progressively gaining ground at the center of the petrodollar system.

With the announcement of $350 billion in Saudi investments, Trump also kicked off his first foreign tour during his first term in Riyadh.

The close relations that existed during Trump’s first term—a time marked by significant arms sales and the United States’ unwavering support for Bin Salman despite the world’s horror over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi operatives in Istanbul—have given him a great deal of favor with the Saudi leadership.

Five industry sources stated that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies now want to press Trump to relax U.S. rules that have prevented foreign investment, especially in areas considered to be part of America’s “critical national infrastructure.”

Saudi ministers are expected to push for a more business-friendly environment in their talks with U.S. officials, particularly during a period when China is actively vying for Gulf investments, according to industry insiders.

Trump’s top foreign policy priority may be to thwart China’s economic growth, but Saudi Arabia will make this difficult. China now plays a key role in the kingdom’s objectives since the introduction of Vision 2030, controlling industries including renewable energy, infrastructure, and energy.