Trump’s trade war may have a significant impact on stores this summer due to empty shelves and shipping chaos

Trump’s new tariffs are already seriously slowing down shipping, and by June, shelves may be empty.

Retailers and employees may have a difficult summer if Apollo Global Management’s latest predictions come to pass.

Apollo’s Chief Economist Torsten Slok said that President Donald Trump’s recent trade war actions may cause a significant slowdown in shipping, which would leave shop shelves bare and cause a U.S. recession by this summer, according to a story from Investors.com.

This is what’s taking place: According to Flexport, shipment cancellations are currently above 50%, and shipping volumes between China and North America are apparently rapidly declining. Ocean carriers are consequently reducing their operations at a rate not seen since the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic.

Apollo’s schedule is concerning; by mid-May, cargo ships bound for American ports are predicted to slow to a crawl. By late May, domestic freight might cease flowing since train lines and trucks depend on those deliveries, which would leave retailers with less products to sell.

Layoffs are predicted to have a significant impact on the trucking and retail industries by early June, paving the way for a summer recession.

Analysts in the shipping sector are already noticing red flags. According to marine consultancy Drewry, the volume of container ports worldwide is expected to decline by 1% this year, marking just the third decline in shipping demand since 1979. According to Drewry’s estimate, which Reuters cited, U.S. imports from China may fall by 40% if the majority of tariffs remain in place.

Major ports like Long Beach and Los Angeles have also been dumping excess inventory that was stored up prior to the tariffs going into force, according to Flexport. However, cancelation rates are already getting close to epidemic levels as fresh purchases are drying up.

The pressure was initially felt by well-known companies like Amazon, Walmart, and Target. For the second half of 2025, the National Retail Federation has already predicted a 20% decline in the volume of U.S. import cargo. In the meantime, stocks of domestic freight carriers and shipping firms, such as ArcBest and Old Dominion Freight Line, have fallen precipitously this month.

Apollo’s predictions, which are linked to the growing trade tensions between the United States and China, might result in a difficult mix of job losses, less supply, and higher pricing in the upcoming months.

As this issue unfolds, keep an eye on it and get ready for some significant changes at the checkout line.