Angola is stress-testing for reduced oil prices, according to the country’s finance minister, and an IMF program is more likely

Finance Minister Vera Daves de Sousa said Friday that Angola is conducting stress tests to determine the possible impact of a drop in oil prices on government finances, and that the circumstances increased the likelihood of requesting an IMF loan program.

After U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on April 2, Brent oil futures temporarily fell below $60, the lowest level in four years, despite the fact that the second-largest crude oil exporter in Sub-Saharan Africa had predicated its 2025 budget on an oil price of $70 per barrel. On Friday, the contract finished at $66.91.

Daves de Sousa told Reuters, “We are rolling out stress test scenarios,” during an interview conducted outside of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund spring meetings in Washington.

While some spending might be frozen in response to a modest reduction in oil prices, a drop to $45 would probably necessitate a supplemental budget. “De Sousa said.”

According to her, the government is developing strategies to improve property tax enforcement, streamline tax administration, and lessen the revenue-side effects of declining oil prices.

Many smaller, riskier emerging economies have been particularly affected by the decline in oil prices and the recent unrest in fixed-income markets, particularly U.S. Treasuries. Angola has seen a precipitous decline in its foreign bonds.

Earlier this month, JPMorgan made a margin call on Angola’s $1 billion total return swap, a loan that was issued in December and secured by the nation’s dollar bonds, forcing Angola to pay $200 million.
De Sousa stated that she had received no unfavorable comments from investors or rating agencies regarding the payment being triggered and that she was discussing potential steps to prevent another margin call with JPMorgan.

She said that the administration was considering asking the IMF for a funding scheme. “There are no negative connotations… they were positive, surprised that we were able to mobilize such an amount of money so fast,” she said.

In response to a question concerning oil-backed Chinese loans, de Sousa stated that the government will need to repay an additional $8 billion by 2028, not 2030–2031, as had been originally projected.

Angola is also taking out more loans from China, primarily from China’s EXIM bank, which are concessional loans that aren’t secured by collateral and are intended for certain projects like expanding internet access in remote regions or enhancing education.

Angola wants to access global finance markets once more, but it does not currently have any plans to do so, according to De Sousa.

“We would like to visit the market, but given their current performance, this is not the right time. We’ll keep an eye on it and make sure we’re prepared when the time comes.”

De Sousa added that representatives of the Trump administration had reaffirmed their pledge to finance the Lobito rail route in discussions held in Washington, but they did not specify how much. The project’s goal is to assist in moving vital minerals from the copperbelt region of central Africa to the west.