Congo conflict: It’s more difficult to stop the rise of M23 rebels backed by Rwanda this time

Colleta Nzambonimpa, who has been fleeing the Rwandan-backed M23 insurrection in eastern Congo for three years, was abandoned in a church on Sunday while the rebels fought their way into the outskirts of Goma.

According to Nzambonimpa, 54, “I pray that God strengthens our soldiers,” he told Reuters. “My prayer is for M23 to be defeated and leave Goma.”

However, hours later, in a reenactment of an attack in 2012, M23 rebels were advancing into the main city in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, causing locals to become alarmed and fear that the violence would escalate into a wider regional battle.

M23’s last takeover of the city was brief; a year later, they were vanquished. Things are different this time.

According to experts and diplomats, efforts to defeat the rebels in Goma and throughout eastern Congo and enable millions of people, like Nzambonimpa, to return to their homes would be hampered by the world powers’ unwillingness to take on Rwanda, other international diversions, and the military situation on the ground.

“A significant portion of Congo will not be governed by the central government for a considerable amount of time,” stated Jason Stearns, a political scientist at Simon Fraser University who focuses on the Great Lakes area of Africa.

“The fall of Goma is a game changer.”

In conflict that has exacerbated one of the most serious humanitarian crises in the world, M23 has advanced rapidly over the past month, seizing territory and increasing its grip over the profitable coltan, gold, and tin ore mines in North Kivu province.

Following two conflicts that followed Rwanda’s 1994 genocide, M23 is the most recent in a long series of Tutsi-led rebel groups to arise in Congo’s unstable eastern borderlands. They are well-trained and properly armed.

According to the organization, its purpose is to safeguard the ethnic Tutsi people of Congo. Congo’s government claims it is a proxy for Rwanda.

The government of Rwandan President Paul Kagame has long denied backing M23, even though many UN expert evaluations have found otherwise.

It required concerted international pressure and threats to cut off supplies when the rebels last gained control of Goma during the peak of an insurrection in 2012–2013.

Congolese forces then launched a counteroffensive with the assistance of an African army sent by the United Nations, which resulted in their capitulation.

The United States, France, and Britain all denounced Rwanda’s backing for M23 during an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting on Sunday, but they did not take any specific action.

By now, “everyone has pointed the finger at Rwanda and it has not moved the needle,” said Stephanie Wolters, a Congo expert at the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa. “Kagame hasn’t had to face consequences that matter to him yet.”

DISTRACTIONS AND VACUUMS

The world’s focus is elsewhere at the moment of the attack. “The United States is introspecting. Europe is split. There is unrest in the Middle East. “Kagame took advantage of the situation,” a Western official told Reuters.

The president of Rwanda has spent the past ten years courting the countries that may hold him responsible for crimes in Congo, capitalizing on his reputation as a reliable ally in a volatile area.

By accepting asylum-seeking refugees in Rwanda, for instance, he has improved his standing with Britain. In 2022, Kigali hosted a Commonwealth conference as U.N. inspectors recorded Rwandan backing for M23.

Despite abandoning the migrant agreement, Britain’s new administration says it is eager to keep tight connections, according to a new report.

According to sources, President Emmanuel Macron of France has communicated with both President Kagame and President Felix Tshisekedi of the Congo and is working behind the scenes to defuse the situation in eastern Congo.

However, as French power in its old West African colonies waned, Paris is likewise fostering ties with Kigali in an effort to mend the harm caused by its involvement in the Rwandan genocide and to increase its influence throughout the continent.

In order to combat an Islamist insurgency in Mozambique that poses a danger to a significant French gas project, Kagame has sent hundreds of Rwandan troops there.

Across the Atlantic, Washington’s position on Africa has become unpredictable since President Donald Trump returned to office.

“A lot of powerful nations are less willing to engage beyond rhetoric,” said Christoph Vogel, a former U.N. investigator and Congo specialist. “There’s basically no will or political capital to take a stand in the Great Lakes.”

GOING FOR IT ALONE

According to U.N. specialists on the ground in Congo, Rwanda has transferred hundreds of troops there over the last three years, along with armored vehicles, special forces, GPS jamming technology, snipers, and surface-to-air missiles. Kigali disputes this.

Since M23 controls the whole area around Goma, Congolese troops are unable to use it as a base from which to launch a counteroffensive to recover the city.

Additionally, the rebels have increased their grip over mineral resources, which gives them a reason to cling onto territory and a way to maintain their insurgency.

President Tshisekedi’s insistence to hasten the withdrawal of a U.N. peacekeeping deployment has wounded him in the east, and he has come out of a tainted 2023 election weaker. Although the MONUSCO mission’s withdrawal is still on hold, the force is far weaker than it was in 2012.

Analysts think Congo’s neighbors are less willing to intervene militarily this time, despite the fact that a U.N.-mandated brigade from South Africa, Tanzania, and Malawi was crucial in driving out M23 in 2013.

Instead, African officials are rushing to start diplomatic efforts to put a stop to the conflict, led by President William Ruto of Kenya.

“There’s always a way out if people talk and bring a willingness to compromise,” Vogel stated. “But right now, we’re in a situation where Kinshasa and Kigali seem intent on fighting this out.”