Trump’s tariffs threats help boost ocean imports to the US

As Donald Trump was campaigning for president, he talked about new taxes on imports. At the same time, Danny Reynolds checked the tags on wedding dresses in his bridal salon and sped up some shipments to his Indiana clothing store.

Reynolds, owner of Stephenson’s of Elkhart, moved deliveries of about 20 wedding gowns ahead by about two months because she wanted to check the country of origin on the tags. “It was China, China, China, China, China,” she said.

Trump has said that he will put taxes of at least 10% on goods from China and 25% on goods from both Mexico and Canada. This has caused importers like Reynolds to start importing early to avoid having to pay more, which is usually passed on to customers.

A possible second round of Trump tariffs when he takes office on January 20 is the latest thing that is driving up U.S. imports. Other things that are doing this are strong U.S. consumer spending, federal investment in making electric vehicles, and the risk of strikes at East and Gulf Coast seaports.

Container-tracking software company Vizion said that Walmart (WMT.N), which uses containers the most, has seen an increase in sales every week since the third week of September. They used examples of front-loading behavior to show this.

It also said that Columbia Sportswear (COLM.O), opens new tab has seen higher sales year-over-year every week since November 5, the day of the U.S. election.

When asked for comment, those stores did not reply right away.

A spokesman for GEP, a company that makes software for procurement and supply chains, said in a statement, “In November, U.S. manufacturers, especially in the consumer goods sector, increased their safety stocks to help blunt any immediate tariff increases.”

According to trade data provider Descartes Systems Group (DSG.TO), opens new tab, U.S. imports of containerized goods rose 12.8% year-over-year in November.

The number of goods coming from China went up 13.3% last month, Descartes said. These goods could face new taxes under President Joe Biden and possibly even more under Trump.

BMO Capital Markets analyst Fadi Chamoun wrote in a client note that high levels of imports could last until the first quarter of 2025 as shippers try to avoid any new taxes that Trump might put in place.

Because of the many things that are causing front loading, importers have not said how much more goods they are bringing in.

Companies think Trump will put new tariffs in place “very quickly,” said Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles. He also said that the largest container port in the country is on track to have its busiest December ever.

Seroka said that if the first Trump tariffs from 2018 to 2019 are any indication, those imports may put the brakes on in the coming months.

“We saw a run-up of cargo before tariff milestone or implementation dates, and then a huge drop off,” said Seroka.

“No one knows what to expect,” said store owner Reynolds. He also said that Canada-based sportswear brands Joseph Ribkoff, Frank Lyman, and Tribal are some of his main suppliers, but they did not respond to calls for comment.

“The best hope is that some of this is, for lack of a better way to put it, scare tactics on the President-elect’s part,” he added.