Bayrou, Macron’s new prime minister, has a “long road” ahead of him in the tense French parliament

On Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron appointed Francois Bayrou, a close confidant, as his fourth prime minister of 2024. However, the Socialist Party’s refusal to join his coalition government made it immediately apparent how difficult the experienced centrist would face.

Just last week, Bayrou, 73, made a sobering appraisal of his ability to lead a hung parliament that had overthrown his predecessor, Michel Barnier.
“It is a long road, everyone knows that,” he said to reporters. “I am not the first to take a long road.”

It is uncertain if Macron would serve out his second term as president until 2027 due to France’s lingering political ills.

Additionally, it has lowered the cost of borrowing for France and created a power vacuum in the center of Europe, as Germany prepares for new elections after its ruling coalition collapsed and Donald Trump prepares to take the White House.

Leaning on his rural roots as the longstanding mayor of the southwestern town of Pau, Bayrou, the founder of the Democratic Movement (MoDem) party, which has been a part of Macron’s ruling alliance since 2017, has made three attempts at winning the presidency.

Passing a special law to roll over the 2024 budget will be his first priority right now, as a more intense debate over the 2025 legislation that tightens the belt is expected to break out early next year.

Barnier was overthrown by parliamentary opposition to the 2025 measure, and left-wing politicians said Friday they might attempt to overthrow Bayrou as well if he uses his unique constitutional authority to force the budget through parliament.

Another potential weakness could be Bayrou’s closeness to the extremely unpopular Macron.

Macron was accused by the Socialist Party, which he courted during his quest for prime minister, of disregarding their calls for a leftist leader in favor of a “risky” Macronista.

The leader of the Socialists’ parliamentary caucus, Boris Vallaud, declared, “Therefore, we will not join the government and will stay in the opposition.”

THE LEFT VIEW

Macron will be worried about how the left will react to Bayrou’s nomination, as the prime minister will probably be living day-to-day for the foreseeable future at the mercy of the president’s rivals.

Until at least July, when France can stage a new parliamentary election, Macron will be hoping Bayrou can fend off no-confidence motions.

far-left France While leaders of other left-wing parties adopted a more nuanced stance, unbowed party leaders declared that they would seek to oust Bayrou immediately.

Marine Tondelier, the leader of the Greens, also stated that if the prime minister disregarded their concerns about taxes and pensions, she would back a motion of no-confidence.

Communist leader Fabien Roussel stated that if Bayrou pledges not to push through legislation, his party will hold fire against him and make a case-by-case decision.

The far-right National Rally (RN) party’s president, Jordan Bardella, stated that the party will not be demanding an immediate no-confidence motion, while Marine Le Pen, another RN leader, suggested that Bayrou should pay attention to the opposition’s budgetary requests.

A REAL EXAMINATION OF THE 2025 BUDGET LOOMS

The far right and left criticized Barnier’s budget plan as being excessively frugal. It sought to save 60 billion euros ($63 billion) to reassure investors who were growing increasingly alarmed by France’s 6% deficit. French borrowing rates have increased as a result of the government’s inability to break the impasse.

Bayrou’s appointment is unlikely to have a significant effect on French bonds, according to Kathleen Brooks, Research Director at XTB. But according to her, the CAC 40 French stock index (.FCHI), opens new tab, is three decades behind German equities.

“With France still mired in political turmoil, narrowing this gap is an uphill struggle, even with a new PM,” she stated.

In the midst of an investigation into his party’s purportedly dishonest hiring of parliamentary assistants, Bayrou resigned shortly after being appointed justice minister by Macron in 2017. This year, he was cleared of fraud charges.

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