Trump’s triumph will initially hurt Mexico, but there is still opportunity for negotiation

President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico still has the opportunity to negotiate and mitigate the effects on trade, migration, and security, but Mexico must exercise caution now that Donald Trump has secured his return to the U.S. presidency.

Sheinbaum is in a challenging situation because of Trump’s campaign rhetoric, which includes mass deportations, 200% tariffs on automobiles arriving from Mexico, and U.S. military action against drug gangs. It’s likely that the two nations’ relationship would first worsen, which will hurt the Mexican peso.

However, experts argue that Mexico has some long-term power, especially in the issue of migration, which might help soften some of Trump’s promises in areas like trade and security.

“What we know about Trump is that he is transactional,” CSIS Americas Program senior associate Mariana Campero stated.

Sheinbaum, who assumed office last month, will benefit most from following in the footsteps of her predecessor and mentor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, according to Campero. During Trump’s first term, Lopez Obrador managed to cooperate with him, enforcing immigration laws more strictly and avoiding U.S. economic policy alternatives that would have harmed Mexico the greatest.

“Sheinbaum could say ‘Okay, Mexico can take (deported) Mexican nationals back, but you won’t impose the tariffs,'” Campero went on.

In order to push against big tariff rises, Mexico might also rely on American businesses, many of which gain a great deal from the North American USMCA trade agreement. Trump oversaw the negotiations of the current USMCA, which turned out to be much less harmful for Mexico than Mexican authorities had first thought.

The 2026 review of the USMCA is expected to be a significant turning point in the Sheinbaum-Trump relationship. Antonio Ocaranza, the former president Ernesto Zedillo’s spokesperson, stated that Mexico will probably begin preparing immediately with “a better defined and more aggressive strategy” to find candidates who might be adept at interacting with Trump.

Analysts interpreted Sheinbaum’s selection of Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard, a former Lopez Obrador foreign relations chief with firsthand experience working with Trump, as a strong indication that Mexico is preparing its strongest political force for the USMCA review.

China is another possible source of conflict.

Despite criticism from the United States, Mexico has recently allowed Chinese businesses to increase their presence and is thinking of implementing an incentive program that would allow businesses from any nation to invest in Mexico.

Trump, meantime, has promised to impose at least a 10% tax on all other imports and a 60% duty on Chinese goods.

Mexico may be headed for conflict with the Trump administration as a result of its investment-attracting incentives scheme, which does not exclude China.

Mexico’s links with China may be a major area of contention in the USMCA review, according to Lila Abed, director of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington. “This is not good news in the sense of what is coming up for the bilateral relationship,” she said.

Mexico will likewise be in for a difficult ride in terms of security and drugs.

According to observers, Sheinbaum’s government is well aware that one of the top priorities for the two leaders would be stopping the distribution of fentanyl, the lethal synthetic opioid that kills tens of thousands of Americans annually. To acquire the political capital required to stop Trump’s more radical ideas, such American military action against Mexican cartels, Sheinbaum will need to be ready to work with others and demonstrate results.

According to Abed, any such encroachment cannot be disregarded even if it would pose a serious risk to the interdependent economies’ relations.
“I think it’s a real option that’s on the table,” she stated.