Iran fears more Israeli attacks and Western sanctions as it prepares for Trump’s triumph

Iran’s leadership and allies are preparing for what they consider to be a terrible result of the upcoming U.S. presidential election: Donald Trump’s comeback to power.

According to surveys, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican President Donald Trump are still in a close race. However, Iranian officials and their regional allies in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon are worried that Trump would win on November 5 and that this could lead to greater problems for them.

According to Iranian, Arab, and Western officials, Iran’s top concern is that Trump may give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the authority to attack Iran’s nuclear sites, carry out targeted killings, and reinstate his “maximum pressure policy” by tightening sanctions on their oil sector.

They want Trump, who served as president from 2017 to 21, to put as much pressure as possible on Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to compromise and agree to a nuclear containment agreement on conditions he and Israel have established.

Iran’s foreign policy and economic prospects may be altered by this possible shift in U.S. leadership, which might also have significant effects on the balance of power in the Middle East.

Regardless of whether Harris or Trump leads the next U.S. government, analysts think that Iran will lose its influence because of Israel’s one-year-old military effort to weaken the Islamic Republic’s armed proxies, such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

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They said that Trump’s more instinctive support for Israel makes his position seem more harmful to Iran.

“Trump would either allow Israel to launch targeted attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities or impose extremely strict sanctions on the country. According to Abdelaziz al-Sagher, chairman of the Gulf Research Center think group, “he is fully endorsing a military action against Iran.”

“It’s Netanyahu’s dream day to have Trump back in the White House,” he stated to Reuters.

CHALICE OF POISON?

Tehran was “prepared for all scenarios,” a senior Iranian official told Reuters, who asked not to be identified. Regardless of who was in the White House, we have continuously (for decades) managed to export oil while evading severe U.S. sanctions and have improved our relations with the rest of the world.”

A Trump triumph, meanwhile, would be “a nightmare,” according to another Iranian source. He would ensure that oil sanctions are strictly enforced and put pressure on Iran to appease Israel. If such is the case, our business will be financially paralyzed.

According to Trump’s October election address, Israel should “hit the Iranian nuclear first and worry about the rest later” in response to Iran’s October 1 missile launch on Israel, even if he declined to declare war on Iran.

On October 26, Israel launched attacks in retaliation on Iranian military targets, including missile manufacturing facilities.

Future options for Iran are limited, according to specialists.

The truth is that Trump would back Netanyahu and let him to do what he pleases, according to Hassan Hassan, an academic and expert on Islamic organizations. “For Iran, Trump is far worse than Harris.”

“Washington has given Israel a significant amount of responsibility in the war against Iran and its proxies, with Israel at the forefront,” Hassan said. The United States is sufficiently invested to support Israel, maybe to a greater extent than previously.

Simply said, Iran is having a difficult time this time. Both Democrats and Republicans view Iran as a problem.

Harris stated throughout her campaign that the United States was dedicated to Israel’s security and referred to Iran as a “dangerous” and “destabilizing” influence in the Middle East. She declared that the United States will cooperate with its friends in order to stop Iran’s “aggressive behavior”.

However, two regional insiders said Khamenei would face a “poisoned chalice” if Trump were to win reelection.

In order to maintain theocratic rule in Iran, which is under increasing pressure from abroad and has been shaken by waves of major protests at home in recent years, Khamenei may be compelled to negotiate and accept a nuclear agreement more advantageous to the United States and Israel if he were to reimpose strict sanctions.

Another major obstacle for Khamenei is a U.S.-Saudi defense agreement linked to Riyadh’s diplomatic relations with Israel, which is now in the last stages of negotiations.

By forging a more united front against Iran, this alliance poses a challenge to the regional balance of power and might affect Iran’s geopolitical position and Middle East policy.

NEW DESIGN IN ARCHITECTURE

According to Hassan, many people consider Israel’s recent strikes on Iran and its allies to be a major victory. They established a precedent and changed presumptions that military action against Iran would unavoidably lead to a larger Middle East conflict by providing insights into what a limited strike on Iran may entail.

According to a senior Arab security official, Tehran could “no longer brandish its influence through its armed proxies” following Israel’s fatal attacks on Hamas and Hezbollah commanders.

Iran has every cause to be concerned about another Trump administration.
In 2018, Trump ordered the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Khamenei’s right-hand man and architect of assaults on U.S. and allied interests abroad, and unilaterally withdrew the United States from Iran’s 2015 nuclear agreement with global powers.

Additionally, Trump enacted harsh penalties that targeted Iran’s foreign financial transactions and oil export earnings, causing severe economic suffering and escalating popular unrest in the Islamic Republic.

Throughout his campaign, he repeatedly claimed that President Joe Biden’s lax enforcement of oil export restrictions had undermined Washington and given Tehran more confidence, enabling it to sell oil, amass wealth, and increase its nuclear ambitions and power through armed militias.

He said in an interview with Israel’s Hayom newspaper in March that Iran could have a nuclear weapon in 35 days and that Israel, which is generally believed to have the only nuclear weapons in the region but views Iran’s nuclear activity as an existential threat, was in a “very treacherous and dangerous neighborhood.”

Despite his strong rhetoric, Trump understands that a deal with Iran is the only viable option given its accelerated uranium enrichment program, according to an Arab government adviser. Tehran acknowledges that a “new architecture in the making” is being developed.

“Trump might aim for a new nuclear agreement, he could say I tore up the 2015 agreement because it was incomplete and replace it with a long-lasting agreement, touting it to ‘make America great again’ and preserve U.S. interests,” the advisor stated.

Iran has increased the degree of fissile purity in enriched uranium as the 2015 agreement has deteriorated over time, reducing the amount of time it would need to develop an atom bomb, if it so chooses—though it denies wishing to.

Iran was limited enrichment at 3.67 percent under the agreement when Trump left office, much below the 90 percent of weapons grade, according to Iran Online, a state-run news website.

Iran has now “enriched uranium to 60% using IR-6 advanced centrifuges” and may be able to produce nuclear bombs “within a few weeks… Iran’s strongest weapon against Trump is the completion of the nuclear deterrent cycle, the statement stated.

According to Western and Arab sources, the more Iran suggests it is getting close to developing an atomic weapon, the more Israel feels compelled to strike.

“Trump will back Israeli plans to attack Iranian nuclear facilities if he regains power,” a Western diplomat stated.