Exclusive: A Reuters/Ipsos survey reveals that Harris’ lead over Trump has shrunk to 46% from 43%

A new Reuters/Ipsos survey shows that Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is leading Republican Donald Trump by only three percentage points, 46% to 43%, as the two are still in a tight fight to win the U.S. presidential election on November 5.

The four-day survey concluded on Monday revealed that Trump, who had fallen six points short of Harris in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from September 20–23, was the front-runner on a number of economic issues. It also revealed that some voters may have been influenced by his assertions that illegal immigrants are more likely to commit crimes—arguments that have been largely refuted by scholars and think tanks.

A margin of error of roughly 3 percentage points was present in the poll.

The economy was ranked by respondents as the most important issue confronting the nation, and 44% of respondents said Trump had a superior plan for handling the “cost of living,” while 38% preferred Harris.

About 70% of respondents indicated that the cost of living would be the most significant economic issue for the next president to handle, with very small percentages choosing the labor market, taxes, or “leaving me better off financially.” In each of those categories, Trump received more support than Harris, but voters believed Harris was the more qualified candidate to close the income gap between affluent and typical Americans by a vote of 42% to 35%.

Trump seemed encouraged by the general anxiety over immigration, which is at an all-time high in the United States right now. A total of 53% of respondents agreed with the statement, “Immigrants who are in the country illegally are a danger to public safety,” while 41% disagreed with the statement. In a May Reuters/Ipsos poll, voters were more evenly split on the issue, with 45% agreeing and 46% disagreeing.

Throughout the year, Trump has brought up the crimes committed by illegal immigrants at campaign rallies. Studies have typically indicated that immigrants are not more likely than native-born Americans to commit crimes, despite the paucity of information regarding the immigration status of criminals.

Since her entry into the race in late July, Harris has led Trump in all six of the Reuters/Ipsos polls regarding their matchup. According to the most recent poll, Harris was leading the voters who were most likely to vote in November by two percentage points, 47% to 45%. The Pew Research Center estimated that in the 2020 presidential election, roughly two thirds of eligible voters cast ballots.

In the most recent poll, voters preferred Harris’ mental sharpness over Trump’s. Of those surveyed, 55% agreed that Harris was “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” while 46% said the same of Trump.

The Electoral College determines the winner state-by-state, with seven battleground states expected to be crucial, while national surveys like Reuters/Ipsos polls provide significant signals on the opinions of the people. According to polls, Trump and Harris are tied in those crucial states, with several of the results falling inside the margin of error.

After Democratic President Joe Biden withdrew from the campaign in June due to his dismal debate performance against Trump, Harris entered the contest. Due in part to his perceived strength in handling the economy following several years of rising inflation under the Biden administration, Trump was widely considered as the front-runner at the time.

1,272 U.S. people, including 1,076 registered voters, were polled online nationally for the most recent Reuters/Ipsos survey. 969 of these were thought to have the highest chance of voting on election day.