What are the most important topics in the Mozambique elections?

October 9 is the election for president and parliament in Mozambique. The ruling Frelimo party is likely to stay in power for another five years, even though it is fighting an Islamist insurgency in one of Africa’s biggest gas fields.

Most people think that Daniel Chapo, the candidate of the ruling party and a former radio host and law professor, will become president of the southeast African country instead of Filipe Nyusi.

One of the poorest countries in the world has more than 34 million people. As they go to the polls, here are some of the most important problems they face.

INSURGENCE OF ISLAMISTS

Aid groups say that rebels with ties to Islamic State started an uprising in the northern, gas-rich province of Cabo Delgado in 2017. The uprising killed thousands of civilians, destroyed livelihoods, and forced hundreds of thousands of people to leave their homes within the country. Energy projects worth billions of dollars have been slowed down by the rebellion.

Together with troops from Rwanda and other countries in the area, the government has been able to control the insurgency. However, there have been a lot more deadly attacks since the beginning of the year.

GAS PROJECTS ARE STILL UNDERWAY

Before the wave of strikes by insurgents, more than $50 billion worth of gas projects were set to be built. The goal of the projects was to make the country a big producer of LNG (liquefied natural gas).

The French energy company TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) stopped working on its $20 billion LNG project and said that there was “force majeure” in 2021 because rebels attacked the northern town of Palma, which was a transportation hub close to the site.

Its CEO, Patrick Pouyanné, said in July that the company hoped to figure out how to get its LNG plant back up and running after the election.

It took longer than planned for another LNG project run by Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and its partner Eni (ENI.MI). Exxon hopes to make a final spending choice by the end of 2025.

SCAM ABOUT DEBT

Mozambique is still shocked about the “tuna bond” scam that cost more than $1.5 billion. Credit Suisse helped pay for the loans that were given to state-run companies for fishing fleets, but the money went missing.

Credit Suisse, which is now owned by UBS (UBSG.S), opened a new tab last year.reached an out-of-court deal with Mozambique over the scandal that happened ten years ago. This comes after the International Monetary Fund and other donors temporarily stopped giving the country money, which caused its currency to fall and its debts to become due.

Mozambique said that shipbuilders, corrupt politicians, and banks were working together to hurt the country. At the time, President Nyusi was the defense minister. He denied doing anything wrong.

From Maputo to New York, criminal investigations were started because of the scandal. Senior Frelimo lawmakers were charged for their part in it, which hurt the party’s reputation.

The climate scares

Extreme weather events like droughts, hurricanes, and floods can happen in Mozambique, making it one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries.

A drought caused by El Niño has destroyed crops in southern African countries, including Mozambique. The UN Mozambique said in August that the drought in the central and southern parts of the country had hurt about 1.8 million people.

Mozambique is also often hit by destructive storms. Cyclone Freddy hit Mozambique, its neighboring countries of Malawi and Madagascar, and other countries nearby last year. It was one of the deadliest storms to hit Africa in 20 years, killing over 1,000 people.

AGREEMENT FOR PEACE

Mozambique became its own country in 1975, and Frelimo has been in charge ever since.

A 16-year civil war broke out soon after independence between Frelimo and Renamo, a group that used to be a guerilla but is now the country’s major opposition. The war killed about 1 million people before it ended with a truce in 1992.

But bloodshed has broken out from time to time, usually around elections.

Two sides signed the Maputo Accord for Peace and National Reconciliation right before the 2019 polls, hoping for “definitive peace” to end years of fighting.

Over 5,000 people who used to fight have given up their weapons and are now back in society.