Juba in a tough spot as backers protest a longer term

There may be questions about the legitimacy of South Sudan’s transitional government now that it has an extended term of office because of failed plans to hold polls in December of this year.

This week, Juba’s development partners, who had promised to uphold the 2018 peace deal that led to the alliance arrangement, said they do not want the agreement to be extended.

Their main point was that South Sudan had already stretched its government’s term twice, but still hadn’t done what it needed to do to make sure elections would happen.

The African Union Mission in South Sudan (Aumiss), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad), and the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (Unmiss) all said in a statement that the increase shows that the government of national unity has not met important needs.

Since the R-ARCSS was signed on September 12, 2018, none of these extensions have helped them reach their goals. They were talking about the 2018 peace deal that Igad brokered. “South Sudan’s leaders must put the needs of the country and its people first,” they said.

The unification of the armed forces and changes in the security sector were two of these goals. Because people don’t trust each other, only 53,000 of the 83,000 people needed by the 2018 peace agreement have been taught and brought together.

But people who have joined the army don’t have guns and often don’t get paid for months at a time.

Another rule is that the country can’t hold polls until it has a permanent constitution, which experts say could take at least three years.

The other requirement is the national census, which should give us a good idea of how many people live in South Sudan and help us draw the lines between constituencies.

Then there is the matter of registering political groups, sending back more than 2.5 million refugees to their home countries, and finding new homes for 1.5 million people who had to leave their own country.

South Sudan needs $228 million for polls, but right now it can only afford 15% of that amount. Still, the donors are insisting that Juba must fully carry out the 2018 deal, especially the important changes to the security sector.

The real 24-month extension starts on September 22. But the development partners spoke out against the move in a joint statement. The UK, US, Norway, the EU, Canada, France, Germany, and the Netherlands, collectively known as the Troika, were disappointed with the decision and stressed how important it is to hold elections at the right time to improve democracy, stability, and long-term growth.

“We note that the temporary government announced on September 13 that the deadline would be extended for another two years. Our team is aware of the many problems South Sudan is having and knows how hard it is to run an election. It is the unified government’s job to answer to the people of South Sudan for this choice, the Troika said.

The donors also said that the government should have followed through on the 2018 peace deal, even though the “roadmap” was made public in 2022.

“The process of making this plan must be open, consultative, and involving everyone.” If the peace process is extended for another 24 months, the groups that run it will have to spend more money.

“We want the South Sudanese government to present a solid and clear outline of how these projects will be paid for.” They said, “We continue to stand by the people of South Sudan and support them without wavering.”

More people with an interest in the subject spoke up, and most of them didn’t agree with Juba.

Cardinal Stephen Ameyu, a Catholic archbishop, said the move showed a lack of political commitment.

The cleric said, “Political decisions are needed to make sure that South Sudan has lasting peace, but the political elites and parties to the peace agreement shouldn’t keep taking advantage of the South Sudanese people’s strength. Instead, they should keep their promises.”

Even though Juba has problems with legitimacy, politicians in the country say the polls won’t happen because they don’t have enough money and aren’t ready in general.

President Salva Kiir and his first deputy, Dr. Riek Machar, were wary of polls last year, even though they sent mixed messages a lot of the time.

Since South Sudan broke away from Sudan 13 years ago, there have been no elections.

Cabinet Affairs Minister Dr. Martin Elia Lomuro says that the latest extension will give the government more time to carry out the last few important parts of the 2018 peace deal.

“The extension was made because that’s what the security sector and the electoral institutions asked for.” “It’s a chance to carry out the unfinished parts of the peace deal,” he said.

The elections that were supposed to happen on December 22, 2024, have been pushed back to December 2026 because important parts of the peace deal from 2018 have not been put into place.

But the delay has made people wonder if it might hurt other talks that try to bring in people who didn’t want to be a part of the 2018 peace deal.

There were talks in Nairobi called the Tumaini Initiative, and nine protocols were agreed upon. One of the most important was a deal to discuss the country’s political reforms and make a constitution peacefully.

A representative from the Tumaini Initiative, Dr. Cirino Hiteny, said that it is not clear if the initiative will be successful after the delay, which does not take into account the Nairobi talks.

“We need to wait for the government delegation to return from Juba before we decide what to do next,” he said this week.

A political analyst named Mogga Loyo said that the Tumaini Initiative was always a threat to some government members because it would require them to give up their jobs to make room for the holdouts.

It is clear that Dr. Machar, leader of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), is against the Tumaini Initiative because it aims to replace the 2018 peace agreement, which is officially called the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS).

Maj-Gen Charles Tai Gituai, chairperson of the Revitalized Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC), which keeps an eye on violations of the peace deal, was also worried about how important it was to meet important election requirements and how there wasn’t enough money to carry out the peace agreement.

“In March of this year, we asked the R-ARCSS parties to talk about how to move forward so that free, fair, and credible elections could be held on time and according to the roadmap.” Though there was a lot of pressure, the answer has been slow, he said, referring to the people who signed the 2018 peace agreement.

Gen. Gituai said, “Any extension without guaranteed funding is unlikely to lead to a successful outcome. We call on the RTGoNU to address the funding and other problems that have slowed down implementation.”

A top researcher in humanitarian, development, and policy issues, Prince Malish, thinks that South Sudan can get out of the transitional trap with a plan that is both gradual and long-term.

He suggested that the elections be held in three steps, one at the national level, one at the state level, and one at the local level. These stages could happen between December 2025 and December 2026.

“This method could help the government test the waters, lower the risk of election violence, make the best use of resources, boost public and donor confidence, and keep the National Election Commission from getting too tired and overworked.”

“He also said that because of the country’s geography, low literacy rate, logistical difficulties, and weak security, a staged election process would let gaps be filled at each stage,” Malish added.

Article 199 of the Transitional Constitution of South Sudan, 2011, says that changes to the constitution and postponements of general elections must be made at least one month before the talks.

South Sudan became independent in July 2011. Elections were meant to happen in 2015, but they were canceled because of a civil war.

Once more, the country was due to hold elections in February 2023, but in August 2022, the leaders pushed the date back 24 months, saying that the country was not ready.