CDU leader Friedrich Merz is pursuing the position of German chancellor

Friedrich Merz, who was previously excluded from high-level politics by his formidable party rival Angela Merkel over two decades ago, is now poised to secure his first government position as the next chancellor of Germany.

On Tuesday, the conservative Christian Democrat Party (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, which are currently leading nationwide surveys, reached an agreement to nominate Merz, 68, as their candidate for chancellor in the upcoming federal election.

Merz, a wealthy corporate lawyer who resigned from politics in 2002 after losing a power struggle within the CDU to Merkel, is widely regarded as the polar opposite of the woman who led Germany for 16 years in terms of both manner and policy.

Merz, an outspoken and provocative economic liberal who advocates for a revival of Christian values, has shifted the CDU back to the right since being elected CDU chief almost three years ago, in contrast to Merkel, a consensus-driven, even-tempered pragmatist who shifted the CDU more towards the center.

In recent months, he has been heard criticizing Berlin’s migration policy, which is characterized by Merkel’s own open-door policy. He has instead advocated for the rejection of asylum claimants at German land borders.

Merz, a Catholic father of three who is married to a judge, aspires to regain the support of voters who have defected to the anti-migrant Alternative for Germany (AfD). The AfD became the first far-right party to win a state election since World War Two this month.

In the process, he has made a series of populist statements, such as accusing certain Ukrainian refugees of “social welfare tourism” and the children of certain Muslim immigrants of being “small pashas” with no respect for authority. CDU insiders are concerned that these statements could alienate more centrist voters.

Hendrik Wuest, the conservative premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state, was previously considered a competitor for the chancellor candidacy. In a newspaper column earlier this year, Wuest cautioned the CDU to adhere to Merkel’s “policies of modernity” rather than “scoring cheap points.”

In response, Merz, who stands at nearly 2 meters (6.6 ft) tall, made an unusual public dig at Wuest, which his detractors claim is a sign of his thin skin.

Jutta Falke-Ischinger, co-author of an unofficial biography on Merz titled “The Unyielding One,” stated that he is sensitive and easily irritated, particularly when he perceives that he is being unjustly treated. “He doesn’t have much impulse control.”

Nevertheless, Falke-Ischinger asserted that Merz was more decisive than the current Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, who is accused of dithering by his opponents.

“He (Merz) has an open ear for everything and everyone, is reliable; once he says something, he does it,” according to her.

LOW POPULARITY RATINGS

Alexander Clarkson, a lecturer in German studies at King’s College London, asserts that Merz, a protégé of the late CDU grandee Wolfgang Schaeuble, secured the position of party chief through persistence and by appealing to grass-roots members who were dissatisfied with Merkel’s perceived betrayal of the party’s core principles.

“But he does not have much deep support in the party and is one blunder away from coming under enormous internal pressure,” according to him.

Despite the unpopularity of Scholz’s fractious coalition, the conservatives have since risen in polls to approximately 33%, a significant improvement from their lowest-ever result in the 2021 election. However, analysts note that this increase is relatively modest.

Merz, like Scholz, has been a marginal figure in the popularity rankings of politicians for an extended period, despite a recent modest increase in his profile.

A high-ranking CDU politician, who requested anonymity, stated, “He may not be popular, but in these uncertain times, it may be more important to demonstrate strength, which he does.”

“DARE MORE CAPITALISM”

Merkel removed Merz from his position as CDU parliamentary leader in 2002, and he subsequently resigned from the Bundestag in 2009 to pursue a successful business career. Merz was raised in a small western town as the firstborn son of a judge.

The amateur pilot, who disclosed in 2018 that he was earning approximately 1 million euros ($1.1 million) annually, has served on the advisory and supervisory boards of numerous prominent companies, including Commerzbank and BASF. Additionally, he served as the chairman of BlackRock’s German subsidiary, which is the largest fund manager in the world.

Critics assert that he is prone to representing the interests of corporate elites over the people and is out of contact with ordinary Germans. His decision to fly a private aircraft to the wedding of Finance Minister Christian Lindner in 2022 in a country that is wary of ostentation sparked controversy.

Supporters argue that his private sector experience can provide him with a more comprehensive understanding of how to revitalize a stagnant economy.

Merz, the author of the 2008 book “Dare more capitalism,” has expressed his desire to decrease social benefits and taxation, with a particular emphasis on companies. He has also expressed his desire to simplify Germany’s notoriously complex tax system. He once stated that annual tax returns should be so straightforward that they could be written on a beer mat.

Merz, who has long opposed Germany’s withdrawal from nuclear power, believes that the government should establish more competitive conditions for all firms by, for instance, reducing energy prices and promoting innovation, rather than focusing on specific sectors such as e-mobility.

The primary issue with the proposals, according to Carsten Brzeski, global director of macro at ING Research, was that Merz had not specified how he intended to finance them.

“Merz’s economic policy proposals all make sense but are typical opposition proposals and not yet constructive ideas for a next government,” according to him.

ADVOCATE OF CHURCHILL

Merz’s fiscal conservatism, particularly his opposition to common European debt, could also impede initiatives to stimulate EU development, such as increased public investment.

Nevertheless, Merz, who began his political career as a European lawmaker, has identified himself as a “truly convinced European” and has pushed for a more cohesive union, particularly in the areas of defense and foreign policy.

According to Eurasia Group, this, in conjunction with his more hawkish stance on both Russia and China, may indicate that he is more in agreement with French President Emmanuel Macron, whom he visited in Paris late last year, than Scholz. He asserts that Winston Churchill, the British leader during World War Two, is the politician who has had the most profound impact on him, in addition to Schaueble.

Merz has also identified himself as a “convinced transatlanticist” and has served as the chairman of the “Atlantic Bridge,” a non-profit organization that promotes U.S.-German relations, for a period of ten years.

His capacity to implement any of his proposals will be contingent upon his capacity to establish a coalition with the three ruling parties that he has spent the past several years criticizing. This is due to the fact that he, like all mainstream party leaders, has explicitly disavowed any collaboration with the AfD.

“Carsten Nickel, a political risk consultant at Teneo, suggested that he could satisfy the increasing demand for politicians with unwavering convictions following the Merkel and Scholz eras in his capacity as chancellor.” “But German politics is all about compromise in the end, and that might be something that comes less naturally to Merz.”

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