Although winning parliamentary elections, Croatia’s ruling party is unable to secure a majority

Given that the ruling party in Croatia won elections without securing a majority, the country may see political instability in the future.

Preliminary results show that the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) won the parliamentary election on Wednesday, although with fewer seats than in the last elections and without a majority.

The right-wing Homeland Movement picked up 14 seats, while a coalition led by the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) won 42 seats, leaving the HDZ with 60 seats in the 151-seat parliament, short of a majority.

The election was seen as a referendum on the popularity of Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic and the political power of his party, which had dominated Croatian politics since the nation’s independence in 1991.

Since Plenkovic backs Ukraine and the opposition does not, the result may also have an impact on Croatia’s attitude on other matters, such as the crisis in Ukraine and ties with the EU.

In the event of a narrow victory, Croatia might experience a period of political unrest as the major parties look to form coalitions with groups that have opposing political ideologies.

Plenkovic declared that in order to establish the government, his party would seek to obtain a legislative majority.

It is uncertain how the Homeland Movement would support a specific party, but it may prove to be a kingmaker in coalition talks.

Long-term accomplishments of the HDZ include Croatia’s EU membership and economic expansion, but the party has also come under fire and been involved in graft scandals that could threaten its majority.

Opposition leader Pedja Grbin stated, “It is not over,” expressing the SDP’s optimism for a different outcome. We have discussions that will lead to the change that will improve Croatia over the next days, weeks, and possibly months. We are going to begin discussions tomorrow.

The election saw a recorded turnout of 61.83%, and observers predict a more divided parliament that will require protracted coalition talks.

The risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft’s Mario Bikarski, an analyst for East and Central Europe, stated, “A minority government, either HDZ- or SDP-led, would be even more unstable and unlikely to last its full term.”